Aladdin Insane?

Posted on July 21, 2016 by Guthlac

Edward Leigh

So it seems we all now just have to accept everything that Brexit means without saying ‘hang on a minute…’   It is a month to the day since the vote and to be quite honest I haven’t got the first clue as to what Brexit means any more than I did when I voted to remain.   Apparently though I am not supposed to ask such questions because the British people have voted and that is that.  It matters not that none of the arguments behind Brexit makes any sense at all we are all Brexiters now.   Iain Hislop summed up this point far better than I can:

Yesterday saw the first stirrings of what probably will become the psycho-drama to end all psycho-dramas when Edward Leigh MP, last seen looking dazed and confused with all the other Leadbanngers when the lady withdrew from the Tory leadership contest, stood up in Parliament and shot a warning across the bow of Theresa May who, quite wisely, ignored his question and answered a different one.  Yet there was the seed of the rebellion even though the Brexiters had won, now they want to drive Britain further and further to the right and won’t accept any compromises along the way.  Oh what it must be like to live in a land of ideological purity where you never have to give way on anything and everyone sees everything the way you do – suspect there are some on the Labour side who inhabit such a land as well.  However in the land that everyone else lives in you have to cut deals and trim and tack your way to where you want to get to.   The problem with Brexit no one has the first clue as to where that is.   But of course that is my fault for pointing that out and I clearly have not accepted the will of the British people.  I need to be re-educated

I will leave you with this thought.  Yesterday I went to Hardwick hall in Derbyshire – a more quintessential English scene you could not wish to behold.   Before leaving I used the facilities and as I was going into the new toilet block I noticed that the renovation was paid for, in part, by the EU.  Now that we have voted to leave the EU where will the money come from to replace that funding?  Certainly not from Boris et al’s magical mystery tour’s £350m.  So what does Brexit mean again?

 

 

 

 

 

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Crazy Crazy world

Posted on July 18, 2016 by Guthlac

Sometimes we all wish we could stop the world and get off….I think we are approaching one of those times.  An abortive coup in Turkey which exposed the security of one of the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the region; shootings and deaths daily on the streets of the United States of America; Donald Trump; possible Italian bank collapse ;Brexit…I could go on but what is the point?   The point of course is that whilst we in the west can worry about such matters for an awful lot of the human race such matters are very abstract to their lives when compared to starvation, thirst and death which is part of their real lives rather than an abstract macro concept happening somewhere else.

Swirl

So when feeling in a crazy rich westerners funk what better way to get out of it than makes some sketches…you know what – it works.

Red Bed Pen and Ink

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Things were so simple in 2014

Posted on July 17, 2016 by Guthlac

After the week we have just had in Westminster it is tempting to think anything is possible and it seems that some of the impossible thoughts are permeating to the surface, one such thought is that Scotland can stay in the EU and the Union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.   Just how any of that would work is beyond anyone’s imagination but the idea is floating around at the moment.  It is, of course, part of the uncertainty over what exactly does Leaving the EU mean which was narrowly voted for in the recent referendum.   You have to have sympathy with Nicola Sturgeon when she looks at the trainwreck of a hand she now has to play.

On the one hand she has the rightful anger of the Scots who voted by quite a clear margin to stay in the EU set against the fact that should they stay in the UK they will leave.  This has stoked the fires for a second referendum on Scottish independence.  Leaving aside the fact that the Scottish parliament cannot order a new referendum, this is one of the reserve powers of the Parliament in London, Scotland gaining independence at the moment would be even closer to lunacy than anything else I can think of.  This doesn’t mean that should the Scots wish to leave the union they should be prevented, in fact at the last referendum I was in favour of that, mainly because I felt it would allow a more mature relationship to develop between England and Scotland.  No instead I think the timing is awful for the Scots – let me explain why:

Timetable –  The most likely date that the UK will leave the EU is sometime in 2019, possibly early 2020.  During that time the UK Government will be concentrated on making the whole thing work in principle, let alone in any detail which will probably take years more to sort out.  Equally, the EU commision will be doing the same whilst trying to keep the other nations of the EU onside with what they are proposing which won’t be easy.  A very simple example of this would be to think about the likely employment opportunities presented by the removal of the City of London from the single market with France, Germany and Ireland competing to try and attract the ‘EU’ operations of the City of London – I think that Ireland is likely to win this race but it has to be said I haven’t got the first clue about that.  The EU is not united about what Brexit means for them other than a huge amount of upheaval.  Given this the last thing that they would truthfully be interested in is further complexity of trying to accommodate Scotland.

Equally, Trying to organise a referendum and negotiate the separation of the union between England and Scotland  in the two or so years outlined above is next to impossible.  The earliest that a referendum could be organised would be spring 2017 which would mean that the separation would have to take place by no later than the formal separation of the UK from the EU for Scotland to still be part of the EU when it becomes an independent nation.  It is just not going to work;

Vote for Independence – Last time the vote for independence wasn’t as big as the vote to remain in the EU so it is tempting to see this as a clear signal that this time the vote for independence would go the way that the Nationalists want.  This is an incorrect analysis of the situation and don’t take my word for it look at the actions of the First Minister herself.  She is clearly far from certain  that she would win a new independence referendum otherwise she would be already calling for one now.  Independence in 2014 was so much more simple than it would be in 2019/20.  For one thing back then Scotland and the rest of the UK would have been inside the EU which would have made trading between the two countries so much more easier.  Now it is so much more complicated with the distinct likelihood that an Independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU which would take years to accomplish.  Then there is the whole question of the strength of the Scottish economy outside of the UK – just what would Scotland have to do to meet the EU requirements?  And lets not mention oil here shall we.   So in short the timetable is against Scotland and any vote would be against a backdrop of real uncertainty with no short term gains to show for independence.  This would make things so much more difficult for the SNP.  However, on the flip side that is exactly the same situation that the Leave campaign faced and they won so never say never but it is unlikely to succeed now anymore than it was in 2014;

Ireland – The one country that stands to gain the most from Brexit is Ireland.   I know this sounds somewhat far fetched given the complex relationship with the UK along its common border but this can be managed as it is in both side’s interest to make it work.  The real problem for Scotland is that Ireland is a direct competitor for the displaced UK companies looking for an EU home so that they can continue to trade within the single market.   If this does come to pass then it is not going to be in Ireland’s interest, no matter how fraternal they might appear on the surface, to help a newly independent Scotland.  It was interesting that one of the first meetings that the First Minister had after the Brexit vote was with the Irish Prime Minister.  I am sure they gave the impression that they were best buddies but Scotland’s lose will be Ireland’s gain as both will be fighting for the same access to their single biggest market England.  Both countries might like beating England at football or rugby but both know that England can make or break their economy so Scotland would be foolhardy to assume that Ireland would do them any favours should they require them – this includes helping a newly independent Scotland gaining or retaining their EU membership  on favourable terms;

So at the moment any thoughts of Scottish independence are just that thoughts.  This doesn’t mean that the Scots, should they wish, not gain their independence it is that things are so much more complicated now than they were in 2014 and one can only dread to think what the situation might have been for Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014 and the negotiations would have been in full swing by now when the Brexit vote would have destroyed so many of the assumptions upon which the previous negotiations between Scotland and the rest of the UK would have been based on.  In short the devo max that is the most likely outcome for Scotland after Brexit would suit most of the Scots and I suspect that the First Minister knows this but she, like the Prime Minister have to deal with their fringes which can cause untold damage if they aren’t kept under a tight leash.

One final thought.  Alex Salmond is writing a new book about the options for an independent Scotland.  It should be a fascinating read but given his last tome  on this, the White Paper on Scotland when he was first minster then I suspect it won’t be as grounded in the new realities any more that was.  And you thought that Theresa May had a hard road ahead.

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The in tray Prime Minister…you’ll need a stiff drink

Posted on July 15, 2016 by Guthlac

So we have a new government…well sort of if you don’t look too closely.  Perhaps a better way to describe what has just happened is new emphasis by the same people.  Cynical? Only slightly I suspect.  So what do the new ministers have to deal with?  Here are some of the known knowns:

Brexit – Before exploring this just a little bit I would just like to suggest that if the remain side had won I suspect that the leave side would not have been so magnanimous.  I am sure that Remain would not have meant Remain for them.  However, they won so now they have to make the lunacy at the heart of Leave work.  The most interesting  thing about the new Minister’s for Brexit Johnson, Davies, Fox and Leadsom is that not one of them has the first clue how this thing will work.  It is one thing to make fanciful claims but it is quite another to face full square the problems associated with this.   Perhaps the best example will be how Andrea Leadsom will deal with the angry farmers when they realise that they won’t have the cushion of the Common Agriculture Policy but rather have to face the full force of international competition.   I lost count of the number of Leave placards I saw whilst driving through the countryside – well now they are going to understand the real meaning of Leave – and sooner than many will like – 2019 isn’t that long away and it is the most likely year that we leave the EU.   If they think that the government will have the money to subsidise them as the EU has then they are in for a sock.

Brext means Brexit is a very simple slogan but there will be an awful lot of change forced down the throats of many people to make Brexit work and it is very easy for Iain Duncan Smith to smugly say in 10 years time we’ll all look back on this and welcome what we have done.   Let us all hope that is the case but to get from here to there is going to be painful for an awful lot of people, many of whom were sold a dud by the Leave side and they may be some of the people most badly affected by this journey.  I hope I am wrong;

Debt – I am no economist or expert, two things we are now supposed to think they don’t know what they are talking about, but as a country we have an awful lot of debt.   I am not talking about the Government debt, which is bad enough, but rather the debt we all owe.  As a country we don’t produce enough to support our lifestyle so we borrow money to make up the difference – this known as the Current Account Deficit .  Now provided this is sensibly done then it isn’t a problem but when it is not then we really do have a serious problem, especially if the people who lend us the money feel they that we may not pay it back.  How big this problem is is unclear at the moment – however, along with the Government debt it is reasonable to assume that any Government will want to ensure that they keep as tight a lid on things – suddenly that £350 million is going to disappear very quickly;

Climate Change – Despite the name disappearing from the Government department it is still out there and it is only going to get worse.  It will cause untold damage to the way we do things and we have to take steps to prepare for this.  Pretending it doesn’t exist doesn’t make the problem go away;

Energy Policy – For the first time Britain is starting to generate electricity from non coal fired power stations on a regular basis.  We are decarbonising our energy production, well sort of if you don’t count the gas powered power stations.   Many years ago I was taught that what the electricity system requires is something that can produce the base load needed to keep the lights on.  Back then that was provide by Coal and Nuclear, both of which are now starting to be fazed out.  The new electricity system still requires something to produce the base load, which can be provided by renewables but there needs to be a backup supply when the wind doesn’t blow or it is dark or both.  There are a number of ways to reduce this need which, interestingly, is small scale and labour intensive ie insulation, more solar panels on homes, local smart grids and local combined heat and power (OK this isn’t that small a scale but still not on the same scale as building a nuclear power station).  We as a country we have not really addressed any of the long term supply issues around the base load/backup issue.  The last attempt was the plan to build a Chinese/French reactor in Somerset which the last Chancellor couldn’t see any problems with and was happy to throw money at the huge gaping hole at the heart of the project.  This will not do anymore and after all Climate Change is real and we have to come up with an energy policy that makes sense;

Problems associated with the disintegration of the post colonial setup – This is management talk for Migrants and Terrorism.  As the latest tragic events in France have shown they haven’t gone away.  Many of the migrants are fleeing conflicts in countries that were created by the Colonial powers of the day.  I am not going get into the tit for tat argument about whether this or that is true and then beat myself up for living in one of those ex colonial powers.  That is pointless.  What we do have to face is the consequences of those decisions either in the Middle East, or Africa and they will be bloody and tragic in equal measure.  In fact if you want to look for the most likely source of unknown unknowns this is it;

Zombie Parliament – I know it might not seem that way at the moment but this Parliament is now unfit for purpose.  I am not discussing the broader issue of fairer representation but rather the the 2015/2020 Parliament.  The government only has a slender majority and they cannot rely on the disarray on the Labour side to help them too much.  Things I suspect will start to come to a head when the Berxiteers who are not in Government suddenly have to start voting on what Brexit actually means and they don’t like it.  Very quickly the whole Brexit adventure could collapse and we would be stuck with a parliament that won’t vote the government’s business through whilst at the same time refusing to play ball with the Fixed Terms Parliament act (see previous blog).  If this seems unlikely just look at the grime faces the surrounded Andrea Leadsom when she withdrew from the Conservative leadership contest – there was more than 12 MPs which is all it takes to threaten any legislation that comes to the House of Commons.

Source: The Guardian Newspaper Tuesday 11th July 2016

If this were to happen then god help us all because I haven’t got the first clue how the government would get out of that mess.

So let me wish the new Prime Minister all the best.  For once in a generation or more we are facing a situation that if she makes a pig’s breakfast of things then it really really matters.  It could be argued that Gordon Brown faced a similar situation in 2008/9 and we got through it but therein lies part of the problem.  By getting through that we only stored up trouble for ourselves and this time we really don’t have any happy endings if we cock things up.  No pressure then.

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Good luck to the new PM…we’ll all need it.

Posted on July 13, 2016 by Guthlac

I know I predicted that Theresa May would become Prime Minister before anyone else (I get few things right so I am surely just a little time to crow about this so I am going to enjoy that.  There that is better.)  How she performs as PM we just don’t know but given the hand that she has been dealt then we all need her to perform better than most – otherwise who knows where we’ll be?

On the other side of the House of Commons I haven’t got the first clue what is happening.   I am reassured by friends who are Labour members that Jeremy Corbyn is the right man.  Personally I doubt that but then again what do I know?  What we do know is that the Labour party and Labour movement are going to tear themselves apart over the next few months and the saddest thing is hardly anyone will notice.  I say that not because I want Labour to fail, I don’t, but because we are going through momentous times and all eyes will be on the people who are trying to overcome those momentous events.  Anything else will seem somehow small and somewhat unimportant and I am afraid that is what the Labour party is at the moment – which is very very sad.

I have been rereading some of my previous blogs from the last 12 months and one comes to mind again and again.  I wrote it just after the last general election and I think it is very pertinent for the Labour party and all their problems.   I live in one of the bluest of blue counties, actually that is a description of all the counties of England, and back then I couldn’t see how Labour was going to change the colour of any of those seats to red.  I still don’t and this is the real tragedy.  Perhaps in 2020 things will look a whole lot different, the Tories may have pulled themselves apart, the Labour Party may have woken up to the fact that they are there to win elections and those who really need them to do so rely on this.  However, if this week has shown us anything it is that the Tories don’t really care about anything else but being in Government and it can be argued they will do anything, saying anything to achieve that aim.   This cannot  be said about the the current Labour party.  I will give you one last thought to illustrate the ruthlessness of the Tories.  Can anyone imagine the current or possibly future Labour leader ever having the metaphorical balls to openly nick and call their own policies being espoused by the Tory party?  That is what Theresa May has just done and that is why the bloodletting on the Labour side is pointless.  Tonight I am a sad person.

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Calling an Election…it just ain’t going to happen.

Posted on July 11, 2016 by Guthlac

Here we go again…just as we have chosen the new Prime Minister (PM) in a very British fashion the media is getting its knickers in a twist about a new election to give the new Prime Minister ‘legitimacy’.  If we leave aside the nonsense of the idea that an MP who has the command of a majority of her fellow MPs in the House of Commons doesn’t have ‘legitimacy’ and go to the mechanics of calling an early election.

In the past the timing of an election was the prerogative of the sitting PM.   She could call it whenever she saw fit, usually to her own advantage.  This all changed after 2011 when the Fixed Term Parliaments act was passed.  Now the length of a parliament is set to five years and this can only be changed if one of the following conditions has been achieved as set out in Section 2 of the act:

(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (2), and

(b)if the motion is passed on a division, the number of members who vote in favour of the motion is a number equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).

Subsection (2)

“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”

An election can also be called if a motion of no confidence is passed in the current Government and 14 days later that a second motion saying the the house has confidence in the government fails to get a majority

Now it is not me who is saying this but also the former clerk of the House of Commons is also saying exactly that:  Week In Westminster – go to 7:00mins into the programme.

So it is very clear as to when and only when an early election can be called.  Yet this doesn’t stop every talking head on TV at the moment claiming that the new PM must call an election in the Autumn.   So let us examine the nonsense behind this idea just a little more, this time in reverse order:

The new PM must order her own MPs to pass a vote of no confidence in her government not once, but twice in a fortnight.  If she were to do that then you would have the life expectancy as the PM  measured in days.  It just isn’t going to happen.

So now lets us think about the other option – getting 429 of the 650 MPs to agree to an early general election.  Any abstentions, empty seats due to the death or otherwise incapacity of the sitting MP will count as a vote against the early election, this will mean that the four Sinn Fein MPs will count against the vote for an early election as they represent a seat but have never taken it.  Then we come to the Turkeys voting for Christmas question.  Just how many Labour MPs would want to face their electors at the moment, especially as they are just about be committing suicide with the attempt to oust Jeremy Corbyn?   The only winner in such a vote would be UKIP in all those current Labour seats that voted heavily for Leave.   If you don’t believe that to be the case just look at the number of Scottish Labour MPs there are, none, when just 18 months ago Scotland was seen as Labour’s heartland.  So are these MPs really going to vote for an early election when they are more than likely going to lose their job?  I doubt it.

There is one final way to get around the Fixed Term Parliament act – repeal it.  However, I suspect that the Government of the day might have one or two more pressing issues to deal with before they get around to this.

So next time you hear some journalist getting all excited about an early election remember – they don’t know what they are talking about – what a surprise.

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Pushme Pullyou

Posted on July 5, 2016 by Guthlac

Another day another step along the insane path we seem to be heading at the moment.   The Guardian paper is slowly melting under the total amount of loathing they are printing or publishing on line for the current situation.  Yes it is shit, we get that, but do we have to have every article about the Brexit a the result was wrong.  There will be plenty of time to say told you so when things go tits up but at the moment nobody has the first clue what is happening – so perhaps concentrate on that?

As for life on the political hustings, such as they are.  We have now gone back nearly 300 years at the moment when a small minority of people in Britain are going to select the new leader of the Conservatives and therefore the next Prime Minister.  I expect the MP for Old Sarum to pipe up any second now.  Of the giddy band of wannabes my vote, if I had one but I’m not a party member of 3 months standing so I can’t, the least worst choice is Theresa May.  At the moment she is favourite so I guess that means she won’t win.  Which leaves us with either Michael Gove, who seems to be really revelling in the assassin tag and the totally unknown, no experience of high office or running a political party Andrea Leadsom.  Both are Brexiters, which apparently is the only qualification now needed to run the country and Ms Leadsom has all the hallmarks of a UKIP enterist.  (This is no doubt very unfair on her but as no one knows the first thing about the woman, what she stands for or how she would cope with the pressure of being Prime Minister: the 3am call; nuclear launch codes; sending troops into harm’s way; PMQs in the House of Commons to name but 4 things that have nothing to do with Brexit I can make my own assumptions.)  Just to complete the appearance of a whiff of UKIP it would seem that her tax affairs are possibly not as straightforward as they might be.  Now I am not suggesting for one moment there is anything wrong but the last thing we want is for the new Prime Minister  to be embroiled in a tax scandal just as she is trying to sort out the Brexit mess that she had a major part in creating , even thought there may be no substance to the scandal.

Given the turmoil in the Conservative ranks it takes a rare and special skill for their political opposition to be in no fit position to make the most of this.  However, this skill is what the Labour party have displayed in huge amounts just recently.   Perhaps some Labour supporter can explain to me why they think that Jeremy Corbyn is the personification of the perfect leader?  I cannot see it.  I am not taking about his policies but rather his political and leadership skills which he has not once displayed in anything other than a disastrous fashion.  Perhaps I missed the memo but why should Corbyn be saved?   He cannot command the support of his MPs who were elected by the general public rather than the Labour activists and so have a much more legitimate mandate.  This doesn’t mean they will be selected for the next election, which is the right of the Labour Party, but then again I suspect many of those who are selected aren’t going to win their contests anyway.  However, given what has been going on over the past couple of weeks who knows…Jeremy Corbyn may well be the next PM but one.

Enough of this nonsense and away back to real world and I found myself today at the always delightful Hepworth at Wakefield.  The reason for the visit was to see Stanley Spencer exhibition which was up to the normal standards of the exhibitions at the Hepworth.

Peece

Now I am not in anyway an expert on the works of Stanley Spencer but what I know was greatly expanded by this exhibition.  Spencer was a truly gifted portrait artist if just a little odd, aren’t we all.   For me the highlights were the portraits and the Glasgow ship builders paintings from the Second World War but the exhibition was the closest you will get to a full scale retrospective so if you are in the area it is well worth a visit.

 So it was really relaxing to let my mind wander around the great art on display before coming back to the latest news about the complete travesty that is going on in and around Westminster.  If it wasn’t so serious it would be funny.

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What to Say…what not to say?

Posted on July 3, 2016 by Guthlac

It is just over a week since that night and we are still in a crazy fantasy world.   One side appears to be in total denial and the other just doesn’t seem to understand what has happened.,  I will leave you apply which fits best Leave or Remain or Britain or Europe.  We have had pointless posturing by bit players in the forthcoming drama, whether it be Nigel Farage or Jean-Cluade Junker whilst the serious players try and work out what is the best way to save both Britain and Europe from the mess that both to a greater or lesser extent created.

Whilst this whole mess was unfolding I was watching a documentary series about the air industry.  One of the scene was of the parts of an Airbus A380 being trundled through a small French village during the dead of night.  These parts were assembled across the continent and then flown to France to be built into a new plane.  This strange pageant is held every two weeks and symbolises just who integrated Airbus is across Europe.  It also graphically demonstrate the need for some form of trade deal between Britain and the European Union going forward because if there isn’t any then one of the floats in the pageant could well not be there – the wings.  Which of course will mean that no new Airbus A380s or any Airbus plane will be flying anytime soon as Britain makes the wings for all the Airbus fleet.

Now of course in time this production can be moved to other countries but moving such a technologically advanced  production process wouldn’t be easy and the cost would be hugely damaging to Airbus and Britain.  In short it is in everyone’s interest to come up with some form of trading agreement but this also means that both sides are going to have to compromise which in turn requires stateswomen or men to lead – at the moment there doesn’t appear to be any such leadership we all have to hope that over the coming months.

(I have just reread what I wrote in March this year about what might happen should we vote leave and I have to say it does seem all too accurate even if I say so myself.  As we stand the only difference is the dates as I assumed that the article 50 mechanism would have been activated straight away – actually I didn’t really understand about article 50  of the Lisbon Treaty back then – as I suspect few people did.)

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The world has gone bonkers

Posted on June 30, 2016 by Guthlac

Well Boris Johnson has shafted the whole country – too strong maybe but I’ll get onto that in a moment.   He has decided not to stand for leader of the Conservative party.  It was the conventional wisdom that the only reason he supported Brexit was to get Cameron out and he would be poised to replace him.  So much for conventional wisdom.

It is far too early to say with any certainty what effect Boris Johnson had on the referendum but that is not going to stop me.   I think he was the definitive reason why Leave won and Remain lost.  The reason I say this is because Leave only won by c1.2 million which isn’t that much when nearly 34 million votes were cast.  I have previously written here that the vote would be considered by 5% of the voters – which was only a bit optimistic – it was 4%.  To put it another way it would only take a swing of just over 2% and Remain would have won and which I think the most charismatic person in British politics is quite capable of swinging.   The vote would still have been tight but it probably would have gone the other way.  Of course the Boris effect will be greatly denied by the Brexit side but what planet were they on?   Every event that Boris went to was covered – he was the poster boy of the Vote Leave side so I don’t buy that argument for one moment.

 So thank you Boris Johnson, your vanity has cost Britain a great deal.   I do hope you are greatly rewarded by the publishers of the Daily Telegraph because I suspect you will  have few friends left after this.   By this act of selfish vanity it has now opened up the whole question of the legitimacy of the vote.  Of course Brexit side would argue that it was more than about Boris and they are right.  But without Boris would the Leave side have had the impact?

I can’t think of a more spineless vain act by a British politician in a very long time.

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Uncertain

Posted on June 29, 2016 by Guthlac

Beach Huts North Sea Sailing By Walking the Dogs

These images were captured a week ago today and they already look like they were in another country, another time.  Since they were made the roof has collapsed on everything that seems to pass as normality in Britain.   Some may say that is a good things because out of this chaos will rise a new Britain but if what I saw yesterday in the European Parliament  is anything to go by then we are in for a rough ride.   This was Nigel Farage’s chance to shine, to show himself to be a statesman a potential leader of a country, a person who really has Britain’s interest at heart.  Instead we got a display of a bitter anger and spit towards the very people who we will have to do some form of deal with – it was a pitiful performance and one that brought shame to the whole country.   Of course I am sure that his supporters will say that this was him sticking up for Britain against the bullying from Europe – but that doesn’t really wash.  This was his chance and he blew it.

On the other side of the coin we have the Guardian newspaper who still insists on fighting the last war.  I know there were falsehoods by the Leave side but you also have to accept that the Remain were little better but, and this is the most important but of them all, Remain lost and Leave won.  It doesn’t matter how many rallies there are in London, how many overblown speeches by Scottish MEP in the the European Parliament it isn’t going change that one single fact.  Leave won and Remain lost.  We just have to make the best of the bad hand that has been dealt us. Exactly what that hand is is unclear at the moment and probably won’t be until the autumn at the very earliest.

As far as the European side are concern then they aren’t as unified as they are trying  to make out.  The Germans, who are the final arbiter on all things Europe, may say one thing but that it is not going to stop other countries doing their own thing to look after their own interest.  Ireland has a huge amount to loose and quite a bit to gain from Brexit.  On the lose side is the fact that Britain is by far the biggest market that Ireland trades with, that is if you discount all the tax efficient arrangements by multinational companies, and so they aren’t going to listen to Germany.  They need to get things sorted before whatever happens under article 50.  Then there is the small question of Northern Ireland which complicates everything.  On the plus side though it is an opportunity for the Irish to welcome many British domiciled companies to move to Ireland to take advantage of trading in Europe without really moving to Europe.  Again there is a model for this in the tax arrangements of multinational companies.  There has been a lot of talk of the city of  London loosing trade to Frankfurt  – setting up a European subsidiary in Dublin seems much more sensible, same language, similar culture, same time zone and most importantly the same legal system.

It is said that seven days is a long time in politics and as I look back at these photographs I suddenly under stand that far more than I did when I captured those images.  There are many uncertainties ahead of us, many problems to solve but we have no choice but to try and solve them the best we can.  Trying to get the toothpaste back in the tube is pointless and I think I should end now before I drown in too many metaphors.

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