On the 7th July, when all this nonsense started I wrote that Nigel Farage was a brave man. By that I mean anyone who stands for election is brave. Most campaigns end in failure because no matter how much you think an election should be about x it is up to the voters to decide if they agree or they think it should be about y or z or whatever. When you stand you can loose and perhaps be humiliated.
I assume that his own humiliation was furthest from Farage’s mind when he decide to start the process to force a by election. He wanted to humiliate the establishment, as he saw it, and he was sure he would. Well it now seems that he is the one who is going to be humiliated. He thought he was going to fight the establishment. Instead he is fighting a man with a bin on his head.
With every day that passes it looks like the impossible might just happen. The man with a bin on his head could win. Do I think that will happen?
At the start I was sure it couldn’t. Now, I’m not so sure. Here is why:
My suspicion is that the turn out at the by election will be very low. Maybe lower than 30%. This would require Reform UK to have an excellent ground game to ensure that they can get their vote out. If they have then they should win. If they haven’t well they could be in trouble.
At the last election Farage won with I believe 46% of the vote. This means that more people didn’t want him than wanted him to be their MP. Park the questions about the first past the post voting system for now. If an anti Farage candidate takes the rest of the vote then Farage would be toast.
Enter Count Binface.
With all due respect to the other candidates I think we can all agree that Binface is the only other candidate in the election with any recognition at all.
So will Binface win? I still have my doubts but with every day that passes it is clear that Farage is struggling to be heard. Nor does he have the first clue as to how to beat the summer sensation Binface.
The next seven days will be interesting.
Simon's Blog 