Simon's Blog

After the dust has started to settle just a little from the shock of a Boris Johnson Premiership what are the first trends that are starting to appear?   The first and probably only trend is that this is a Government set up to do one thing and one thing alone – get reelected.  I have already set out a timetable for when such an election may well be forced onto Boris Johnson’s hands.   If this is correct then the most likely election day would be Thursday 3rd of October 2019 and I have to say the way the new Boris Government is being run they seem to assume the same day as well although I think for different reasons.

This is where the Brecon and Radnor by election becomes so important.   The conventional wisdom seems to be that the Conservatives will lose this by election to the Liberal Democrats.  This maybe the case and I suspect the Conservative Party are assuming the same.   What I think Boris and his advisors will be looking at is how much of the Brexit Party vote has moved to the Conservatives in the final week of the by election.   If there is a significant swing back to the Conservatives (I have assumed that the Conservatives have access to the latest polling data as well as any online data they have scooped up to compare any swing in actual vote) then I suspect this might reinforce the idea that Boris can work electoral wonders and perhaps, just perhaps might the risk takers think that they could win an election before the 31st October.  An equal driver for such a risky move may well be to stop a Liberal Democrat surge that might begin to build up as Jo Swinson starts to attack Boris over Brexit and buoyed by the win in Brecon .   The Conservatives are starting to learn the same lesson that Labour has had to learn – they can’t win power without Scotland and a Swinson surge might start to make the Conservatives seats in Scotland even more vulnerable.   Perhaps.

Beyond this possibly. maybe, perhaps speculation the one thing that the first few days have shown is that Jeremy Corbyn will need to up his game against an insurgent Boris.   The 2017 General Election shows that he can do that but that was against the antithesis of a tub thumping politician Theresa May.   It is a whole new ballgame now and to stretch the Baseball metaphor to breaking point the new Prime Minister is like his namesake Randy Johnson.   Corbyn will have to be another Barry Bonds to make the most against the 100 MPH pitches that will come whizzing his way.  (That twanging sound was this metaphor snapping at great speed!)

Play Ball!