I guess this is the worst form of hubris, unless of course if you are writing about politics and then it is seen as true vitality, but I have just reread the blog I wrote back in march and I see I just about nailed the recent local, national and mayoral elections to a tee.   I also predicted that the end of David Cameron would be before the end of the year, which again seems to be now the accepted wisdom, even it seems in a sly way by the Prime Minister himself.  If this is the case then who will replace him?

In that blog I couldn’t see Boris Johnson replacing Cameron and I stand by this.  Whilst Boris is undoubtedly charismatic, a duel edged sword in politics, he has never held high office.  Of course he would argue that being mayor of London is a really important job and yes it is up to a point.  That point is reached when you consider the power he had when compared to probably the most compatible job, the mayor of New York.  Seen in this light then he was little more than a glorified transport minister with no real power but a lot of influence.   There is always the hint of the con man about Boris and would you really want his finger on the nuclear button?   When put like that I think an awful lot of Tory members may well blanch at the thought.

So if not Boris then who?   It is unlikely that George Osborne would even get on the ballet paper so that really only leaves one person Theresa May.  On the negative side she has supported the Prime Minister over Europe, always a bad mark in the Tory party but what few utterances she has made on the subject have been non committal in such a away as not really tie her down to anything.

Another negative mark has been the unstoppable rise in migration, as Home Secretary she responsibility for this.  However, this is also a plus, and this takes a little to get your head around, she has been the longest serving Home Secretary   in living memory and there is a reason for that.  She is actually quite good at standing up to the vested interests at the Home Office.  Now whether this is good policy is one thing but which Tory member is going to hate a ‘put a bit of stick about’ Home Secretary.  No one could ever describe Teresa May as being a liberal minded person instead she seems to be able to keep her head whilst all the silly men run around like headless chickens.  Again not such a bad thing for a Prime Minister.  She certainly passes the nuclear button test, especially when compared to Boris.

The final thing to note is that she is a woman.  This is not meant in anyway as a derogatory fashion but rather a very positive thing.   In the Scottish elections Ruth Davidson led the Tories back to second place, almost unheard of only a few years ago  but she was seen as a significant plus for the Tories.  Now it is unlikely that May or Davison would ever get mixed up but it clear that being a woman isn’t political handicap.  Then of course there is the woman that I suspect an awful lot of Tories would still want to be Prime Minister even though she has been dead for a while – Margaret Thatcher.   When you look at May there is more than a whiff Thatcher – surely a scent that any Tory voter would find hard to resist.  This is even more so when you consider the aroma coming from the other probable candidates to take David Cameron’s place.

In short Theresa May is a hardworking, no nonsense Conservative who has more than a passing resemblance to Margaret Thatcher.  Her political career has been far from faultless but then when you run such a disaster waiting to happen department such as the Home Office that is to be expected.   This being said she still has the appearance of someone who can get the job done and is not too impressed with the liberal world.   So if I were a betting man I would consider putting a few quid on the MP for Maidenhead Rt. Hon Theresa Mary May PC MP.