That is another task completed…I’ve updated my webpage should you wish to have a look click here.
No longer are we to Stay at Home but rather we must Stay Alert! We may start to go outside and exercise a little further a field – distance is undisclosed – Shetland Isles perhaps? I know politics is a brutal and unforgiving business but I do get the smallest whiff of decay around Boris Johnson. He fortunately doesn’t have a cesspool of MPs at Westminster plotting (Zoom and WhatsApp don’t really capture the pleasure of sitting in a favourite corner of a bar to plot with your colleagues(?)) So for now Boris is safe but if I can sense blood then I am sure the crazed sharks of the Conservative party certainly can.
I think Boris will certainly be Staying Alert if not he is doomed.*
*I fully expect that in 10 years time when Boris is celebrating 10 years in power such predictions of doom will be seen for what they most probably are – total bollocks!
Some time ago we decided to give the garden a major make over. It took several years to finally get the garden the way we wanted it but now, with all of us in lockdown, the time and money have really paid off. It is amazing how all our worlds have suddenly become so much smaller than we would have thought back at the start of the year.
I am pleased to say as I was walking around through the predawn mist I didn’t see or hear a werewolf. Of course it is a bit of a cramp on a werewolf’s lifestyle this time of year as the nights are much shorter than the days. Still I’m sure they make up for it during the long winter nights.
There was a time when I would get up in the middle of the night and travel across the country just to catch the morning light. Now I have difficulty getting up just before 5am and walking down to the local park. I blame the lockdown!
There was a short window a week or so ago when it seemed that Britain might have started the healing process after the Brexit nightmare. We all seemed ready for a new tomorrow together. Well that didn’t last. In its place has a new proxy has taken over – the handling of the Coronavirus by the Boris Johnson government.
Then one side will suggest that the Johnson Government has gone too far and we must instead relax and release the creative power of the British economy to get us back on our feet.
The other side however, take the view that we are in this mess because of the negligence of the Johnson government. If only he and they had done x or y earlier then things would have been a lot better and we wouldn’t have had such shameful death toll.
As with everything that has come before I suspect most people are not really convinced by either argument: Yes the economy needs to be saved for all our benefits but not at the cost of a mounting death toll or just to maintain the wealth of the rich; Yes the government has made mistakes but no matter what colour the government might be mistakes would have been made because no one really knows the best way forward because no one has had to deal with a crisis on this scale before. (This is not a defence for people like Donald Trump who has demonstrated a total lack of real concern for their people). I suspect most people are just a little scared that it might be them or someone very close to them who dies and so are very cautious at the moment.
In truth the attacks on the government’s handling of the pandemic from whichever angle are examples of people fighting the last battle as we are entering ‘the new normal’. As to what shape ‘the new normal’ will take I have no real idea (a bit of a pattern there). However, I think that there are certain themes that appear to have taken hold during the lockdown that might be a lot harder to undue as we go forwards:
The coronavirus is no respecter of class. Yes there are clear differences between the death rates between socio economic groups but when the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland nearly dies as a result of the virus then everyone knows it could be them. This, I suspect, has lead to the wholehearted embracing of the lockdown;
The Island’s of Ireland is different to the Island’s of Britain. It would seem that the Northern Ireland Executive and the Republic of Ireland’s government have an awful lot more in common than not. Even the most fervent Unionist might take pause when thinking about that;
Social Distancing is here to stay. Of course overtime things will slowly relax but the social distancing behaviour is likely to change things going forward. One area where this is likely to feel this more than anywhere else is air travel. We may look back and see that 2019 was peak air and perhaps we don’t need an expanded heathrow after all;
Much of the English media still hasn’t woken up to the fact that the United Kingdom is made up of 4 separate governments not just the one in London. Whilst it might be interesting to hear what Matt Hancock has to say he only has power within England. Heath is a devolved area of responsibility and perhaps when this is all over the English might start to understand this a bit better;
The future of the NHS will break future governments. There was a time when governments, usually Tories, talked a good game on the NHS but then failed to deliver he money needed. That will no longer be the case as we have now spent the best part of two months being indoctrinated to save the NHS. If it wasn’t before the NHS is the now the third rail of British politics that if not supported to the up most will destroy any government;
Social Care is a Disaster Area. No government can hide away from this any longer because as a result of the neglect of the past many people have died and it doesn’t matter that they were towards the end of their life;
Whatever advantages that Brexit gives Britain they will have to be embraced. I’m not sure whether many people have really woken up to the fact that we are no longer part of the European Union. I didn’t want to leave but we have and so we should be ruthless in trying to make the whole crazy adventure work as best we can. Of course I suspect this may well be helped by a serious breakdown of European spirit amongst the remaining 27 as they come to realise that the EU wasn’t able to help them as much as they might have thought. However, an unstable EU isn’t in Britain’s short nor long term interest anymore than it is in the member states. Perhaps after the pandemic has settled down we both might come to realise that having a pissing contest isn’t the best way to negotiate and come up with some sensible solutions to our problems.
Or then again we might just throw caution to the wind and live life as if there is no tomorrow – remember the roaring twenties came after the first world war and the Spanish flu pandemic so perhaps that is model for the way forward? I have my doubts but never say never when it comes to people and their behaviour.
So this weekend should have been the May Day bank holiday (Public Holiday) however this year it has been moved to Friday so we can celebrate (?) the 75th anniversary of the end of the second World War of the 20th century in Europe. I have to say I don’t do these celebrations as I feel they are becoming more and more about other things than remembering the suffering of our parents/grandparents (And before you accuse me of not being patriotic my father nearly died fighting in Burma but that doesn’t make me want to breakout the bunting.). Instead we would best honour all of the suffering by a minutes silence and promising not to repeat the mistakes of the past rather than hold a bank holiday on an arbitrary anniversary date – why 75 rather 76?
With that off of my chest it was a lovely day for my walk and a bit of natter to random people I met whilst out – yes we kept the 2m distance.
Thankfully my moody moaning has passed and I have returned to quiet resignation of my lot – this is how life is going to be from now for a while yet and there really isn’t a great deal I can do about it.
As for the lockdown I suspect that it is starting to crumble at the edges. I live near to a main road and a major motorway. This morning I was out capturing some of these photographs and I became aware as to just how noisey the distant traffic rumble was. It was the first time I was aware of it for several weeks so perhaps it wasn’t as loud as it normally was, before the lockdown that is. I know it is hardly very scientific but…. To counter this I have just looked out of a window towards the main road and there isn’t a traffic build up at all. It is the height of the rush hour and before the lockdown there would be lines of traffic – this isn’t the case at the moment. So you make of that you might.
So I have been in lockdown conditions since the 7th March this year (I started two weeks early because of a leg injury meant I had to rest). I know I know the lockdown is for my own good and I also know it is for the good of all those around me but boy is it getting to me at the moment. I have kept myself busy and I do go out for an occasional walk outside, all within the guidelines, but nonetheless this last week I have found myself yearning to be free just to go out and have a coffee with friends (pubs and restaurants are going to be a big no no for sometime to come).
This is all very self indulgent as there are many people out there who have lost loved ones or are worried sick about someone at this very moment. I know all of these things but sometimes, just sometimes, I do miss sitting in the sun and drinking a nice cup of coffee, maybe a piece of cake (no maybe I think) and watching the world go by. At least I have a wonderful garden to enjoy and at long last we’ve had some rain.
I doubt I am the only one feeling this way just at the moment. We can all dream of better times ahead.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Possibly Mark Twain
Over the past few days more and more cries have been heard for the relaxation of the lockdown in the Britain. I have sympathy for with these requests as there are many deaths can also be attributed to economic hardship that has come from the lockdown (this figure will be very difficult to calculate but over time there will be increases in suicides for example). We all will suffer from a massive depression which is what we may well be heading for if the lockdown isn’t lifted as soon as is reasonably possible.
But when to lift or ease the restrictions? That is the question on everyone’s mind. At the moment there does seem to be a favourite country that all of the people wanting to lift the restrictions as quickly as possible point to – Sweden – as an example that Britain should follow. (It has to be said there is a whiff of right wing ideology about many of these people but we’ll park that thought for the time being.). So I decide to look at the available data for myself and to do this I looked at basket of countries(1) near to Britain to provide some context. The dataset I chose to use was deaths/million population. The reason for this is twofold:
Finally the data source I used was the WorldoMeter website
So over the past week the Death Rate per Million of Britain compared to Sweden was as follows:
As can be seen Sweden’s deaths per million is much lower than Britain’s but the trend line is still upwards. One explanation for this figure is that perhaps Sweden is maybe a week behind Britain but even if this is the case they are on trend to have a lower death rate/Million than Britain.
When the death rate change of Britain and Sweden is compared to the median change of the basket of countries it can be seen that perhaps Sweden is over the worst of the current wave of the pandemic.
If this is the case then the trend will be much flatter going forward. So all this points to the fact that Britain needs to adopt the more libertarian approach of Sweden as the costs of a continued lockdown in economic and death rates will be excessive.
This is all very persuasive until you consider one other country – Germany.
Germany has had a strict lockdown for much longer than Britain and they don’t seem to have had anything like the deaths that Britain nor Sweden has had. Their trend rate is at a much lower angle compared to both Britain and Sweden.
You can use statistics to prove most things, other than perhaps injecting disinfectant is a good idea! Why should all be aware of this before we listen to anyone who claims to have the answer, based on the stats. This is a hugely complicated problem for every country. We are nowhere near close to knowing what has worked and what hasn’t beacuse we are nowhere near the end of this pandemic which will continue in some form or another until there is a vaccine or we acquire a level of herd immunity as to push to reinfection rates down to almost zero.
Perhaps the morale of this story is that there are no simple answers but rather choosing the best bad option available. The people making the loudest noise are those who don’t have to make that choice (this includes President Trump has it is down to the state Governors to decide not President Trump!) and they have my best wishes as I wouldn’t want that responsibility.
This lockdown is a strange thing. For the most part we now live very small lives in small areas of the world where only we can visit. Of course some people don’t stick to the rules but for the most part most people are. The one area of infinite expanse open to us (services may and do vary) is the internet and boy don’t we love to get out and scream and shout in that void! That is why, to quote the woman who this week has caught the mood of much of the world “…walking is clutch…”
However, even whilst walking locally on a beautiful sunny afternoon you can’t get away from the pandemic. There are other people out and they are all very considerate for the 2 metre social distancing rules. Most of the walk was through a new park (actually that is not strictly true as most of the land was part of the local common so we could all walk through it before, however, few of us did because it was overgrown and very rough) that had been opened as part of a new development which involved a themed brewery (not sure if that is actually what they call it) and a couple of new businesses. Up until a month ago the coffee and cycle shop were doing well but now of course they’re closed.
Whilst the new brewery is still being built and no doubt will be starting brewing sometime towards the end of the year what of the multi million pound investment and also the jobs and livelihoods of the coffee and cycle shop? This is not me coming out all Michigan Militia but rather to highlight the point that for all the latest hue and cry for an exit strategy nobody has the first clue how to implement one. Yes, other countries are dipping their toe in the water but they don’t know whether what they are doing is the right thing. Don’t believe me? Listen to Angela Merkel and then tell me that she knows the way forward in any certainty.
So you see even when I go out for a walk in glorious spring weather we are having at the moment (don’t get me started about global warming – one crises at a time please!) I can’t leave the problems of the world behind as they are all around. This is why I am glad I don’t have to make the awful choice between letting the economy slide into goodness only knows what or possibly letting many more people die. A new doppler effect can be observed – the louder the crises for something to be done the further away is the person from having to take any responsibility for what might happen.
So I just hope when the restrictions are lifted they are well thought out and are as successful as the implementation of the lock down. I have no idea if this is far or naive but that is all we really have. Depressing isn’t it!