60 Days

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Guthlac

I have written over the past few days that all the sound and fury being expelled towards the Boris Johnson government is fighting the wrong battle.  No doubt the protesters in Whitehall would see things differently – suggesting the size of the crowd shows the depth of feeling against Johnson’s political tricks (sorry coup).   Whilst there was a large crowd I’m more than sure it wasn’t the largest crowd the Metropolitan Police had to deal with yesterday – that was either at the London Stadium or Stamford Bridge.  I guess the crowd at Selhurst Park was much much larger.

I am not trying to downplay what is happening now but I just don’t see what the protestors want to achieve and I think in truth neither do they.   All the time the clock is ticking and like it or not the United Kingdom of Great britain and Northern Ireland needs a functioning government at this time of crises as well as a parliament that is willing to do everything to ameliorate  the problems crises throws up.   Instead what probably will happen is that political games will overtake political reality let alone national interest.   The times for the games are over – we are in this mess because of the same parliamentarians that now are so outraged were unable to agree anything and certainly wouldn’t agree to the withdrawal agreement.   How will they now make anything better?

So what is the real battle?  To put it simply the battle to shape the Europe of the 21st century.   Now it is very easy to assume that Britain will be some supplicant nation having to kowtow to the European Union once we have left but that just won’t be the case.  Here are 4 numbers to illustrate the point: 4.0, 2.8, 2.7.   These are the total value of the German, British and French GDP in trillion of dollars.  In 2018 Britain was the second largest economy in the EU.  Now of course it can be argued that Britain’s economy was only this size because of its membership of the EU and that would be correct.  However, this argument cuts both ways and so the French and German economies have been boasted by Britain’s membership as well.   Nobody wins if there isn’t some form of accommodation between Britain and the EU.

The recent G7 meeting of world leaders illustrated this more than any figures could.   Britain was an important player on the world stage and both the French and the Germans knew this and so went out of their way to be friendly towards Boris Johnson.  This is especially true given the current incumbent in the White House who doesn’t see the EU as a legitimate organisation.   Now Trump won’t be there forever but I suspect his views  might have stained the American approach to the outside world much more than many people hope.  So even if a Democrat wins the election in 2020 Trump will still be a huge political force inside America that the new incumbent will not be able to ignore.   France and Germany need Britain in their sphere and Britain will be best served to go along with that. You will notice I haven’t mentioned the EU when talking about the G7 and that is because it has no clout at all in these meetings.   It is there but it is France and Germany who are the real powers.

What type of country do we all want Britain to be going forward in a post EU world?  This is the real battle to be won not some artificial construct that will be irrelevant come the 1st of November.  I am sick and tired of hearing the nonsense being spouted out by the hard Brexiteers about their world view after we have left the EU what about everyone else?  I think that is were the future of politics lies not the application of 19th and 20th century policies to the 21st century problems.   It will be our opportunity to forge a new Britain to meet the 21st century.  I suspect the era of crazy capitalism is over but I don’t believe that means a move towards crazy socialism either.  I believe in the end we will form a country that is hugely decentralised; A country where a federal structure will replace the  mess that Britain currently is (For this I think we can thank Brexit – without this would we really have started to understand the true impacts of devolved governments and the total lack of clarity at the heart of how this country is run let alone start to address how the people of the British Isles interact?) I suspect the country will continue to be swallowed up by the monster that is London which in turn will place huge pressures on the large cities of western Europe.   All the time we’ll have to find ways to cope with the effects of a changing climate which of course could put London under metres of water!

So this is what I mean about fighting the wrong fights.  Whether I am right or wrong only time will tell but I don’t think protesting about prorogation helps anyone but it might make a few people feel better.  Meanwhile Crystal Palace won and are now  4th in the Premier League.  You can decide which is the biggest silly season story.

 

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Must it contain people?…

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Guthlac

It would be exciting to say that huge momentous things happened to me this summer.  It would be but they didn’t.  Instead life just moved on with me along for the ride.   Perhaps this is reflected in my photographs of the summer 2019.

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Saying goodbye to Summer with a Flatulent Horse

Posted on August 31, 2019 by Guthlac

We humans do like to classify things, put things in their proper place – or is that just me?  I don’t think so.   This morning was the last day of summer up here in the frozen north and so it was nice to get out and take in the last of those summer rays.  However, as I stood there in east Leicestershire it certainly felt much more autumnal than anything else as the sun peaked about the horizon.   Somehow I don’t think the seasons and mother nature care two hoots about whether this day is August or September.

A friend of mine claims that I am a horse whisperer as I will always talk to any horse I come across.   Whether that makes me a horse whisperer or just someone who will talk to anyone or anything I’ll let you be the judge of that.   So as I was standing taking in the splendor of Gaulby Church I also became acquainted with this rather nice horse who was very friendly and I suspect thought there might be bit of apple in it for her.  Unfortunately I had to disappoint her on the apple front so whether she was feeling disgruntled by the whole situation she let out a large and echoing fart.

I cannot think of any better way to sum up the nonsense we find ourselves in at the moment.

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62 Days

Posted on August 30, 2019 by Guthlac

In life  perspective is everything.  This morning is a case in point.   I had an appointment at my local hospital because an anomaly had shown up at my latest eye sight test.   Now I have had some experience of this department and so I knew what to expect:  A lot of people waiting; the organisation was a little shambolic and the care was first rate (probably the best description you are going to get for the NHS and I love it.)   As I sat waited for my name to be called I had a wander through the wild lands of twitter and I was surprised to find out that Britain was in hands of crazed zealots rather than the usual bunch of public school Oxbridge educated people.   We had suffered a Coup and the people were rising up to….well the world of social media would have you believe.

From where I was sitting the world as we know it hadn’t ended and the people were not in any mutinous mood but rather patiently awaiting their names to be called.  It was rather charming and very very British.  Of course this being Leicester the names being called would have made Nigel Farage’s blood curdle but again this is the real world rather than some fantasy.  Oh and I didn’t feel the slightest bit uncomfortable that people around me were talking in different languages but then again this is the Leicester I had worked in for over 30 years.

I then had a walk through the centre of town and for a country in upraw clearly the people in Leicester city centre hadn’t got the memo…I don’t think there is much material for a modern Sergei Eisenstein here.

I do wish the many people on social media would start to calm down.  What Boris Johnson has done is political sharpe practice nothing more.   Of course he is lying through his back teeth when he says it’s got nothing to do with Brexit and he knows it (as he uttered those words he had the greatest difficulty keeping a straight face).   It is not a coup.   As I wrote yesterday getting all het up about this is falling into Johnson’s trap and missing the bigger picture.   What world do we want post Brexit Britain to look like?   Now that is something to vigorously engage with rather than gesture pointless of shouting at the Houses of Parliament or some form of direct action.

What do these protestors want?  The House of Commons has had three years to debate and debate about Brexit and where did that get us?  A massive vote to leave the European Union and three massive defeats for the withdrawal agreement.  Even if the government were to fall and an election was called there isn’t enough time to hold that election before the 31st of October so we are going to leave and in the meantime we won’t have a properly functioning government on the run up to the 31st October – how is that in the public interest? (I am not going to consider the government of National Unity because it is just absurd! click here to see why I think this is the case.)

Unfortunately we are leaving the EU on the 31st October – I don’t like it but the Brexiteers won that battle.   They don’t have to win the post Brexit battle and that is where all the energy should be aimed at not the loss of four working  parliamentary days.

Don’t you know you might find

A better…

BTW…my eyes are fine…..

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63 Days

Posted on August 29, 2019 by Guthlac

Taylor: You maniacs! You blew it up!

So the sound we heard yesterday was blind furry with a huge tinge of hypocrisy. “I don’t want to hyperbolic..” as a Scottish politician might have said just before being hyperbolic – I can’t recall amongst all the sound and fury.   All I can say is plague on both your houses.   Where were all of these parliamentarians when they could have voted for the withdrawal agreement in the Spring?   If they really wanted leave with a deal this was the only deal in town and they refused to vote for it – three times.   You cannot have it both ways but of course they will do.

Of course the plotters and the schemers biggest fault was  that they were fighting the last war.   They thought that what happened in the Theresa May era would happen in the Boris Johnson era.   I think they have now been disabused by what happened yesterday.  All their clever plans that they excitingly feed to lobby journalists have been demonstrated to be hot air.   There is no way to stop the executive now other than by a vote of no confidence and I do not believe there is a majority for that because of Jeremy Corbyn who had the temerity of suggesting that as the leader of the second largest party in the House of Commons he should lead any interim government bent on stopping the exit in October – assuming the EU agree which I really think is less and less likely because of the EU’s own short sightedness.

We remainers have been defeated.  We need to come to terms with that and work out how to change things after the 31st October 2019.  Bollocks to Brexit was fun whilst it lasted but that is now soooo last season.   The real fight should be about shaping Britain for its non EU membership future;  Stopping the Brexit party narrative that it was Nigel wot won it and making sure that the future relationship between Britain and EU accepts that you can’t fight old wars again and again and instead move forward together to make the most of the opportunities that are on offer.

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65 Days

Posted on August 27, 2019 by Guthlac

 

I hate the heat…I know I must be burnt at the stake as a witch but I don’t like the heat.  When you say something like this a lot of people look at you as if you are some half wit (which might be true).   Weather forecasters insist that we must get out and enjoy all the sun – I don’t and I won’t.

Instead of following this group think I spend my days inside, in front of a fan researching Roman archaeology and plotting them on plans like the one above.   Now this really is a very niche activity but I enjoy it.

When the evening comes and the heat is a lot more tolerable I might venture out and capture the odd photograph.  At the moment the harvest is in full swing so if can offer some good photographic opportunities.

As for the political world well how can I put this??   Err… fuck all has changed.  At least the huge combined harvesters create all their sound, fury and  huge dust clouds for a reason. I fear the same cannot be said for our political masters.

I wonder if the harvest will be the same next year after we leave the EU without an exit deal as such (there are already a large number of understandings and gentlemen or women agreements to keep things going  in this outcome)?

Only time will tell.

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Battling with Sunshine…

Posted on August 22, 2019 by Guthlac

Given the weather from the last few weeks it does seem somewhat contrary to complain when a nice sunny day comes along.   Well being ‘ somewhat contrary‘ is a curse I have had to live with for a very long time and I guess getting older isn’t helping matters.

Yesterday I visited one of my favourite garden  places, Hidcote Manor, to enjoy the gardens and take in the sun.   Unfortunately, as anyone who has tried to make an interesting photographic image of a flower or gardens, the sun is your worst enemy.  The colours of the flowers become really harsh and unforgiving as do the shadows.  In short it can be a nightmare – yesterday was no exception.

What it does force the photographer to do is to get creative – if you don’t want blown out highlights etc. – and you have to hunt out the dapple shade and the small places where the power of the harsh sun is ameliorated to a degree.   Anyway these are some of the images that I hope were not destroyed by the sun.

  Of course this is not the first I’ve bitched about this problem at Hidcote and I guess it won’t be the last.

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71 Days

Posted on August 21, 2019 by Guthlac

 

Is this what post Brexit Britain will look like?   Of course not because pre Brexit doesn’t look like this – only in fantasy places such as Hidcote manor.   What we do know is that the next 71 days are going to be a bit of an increasing shit storm,   Nothing to worry about then.

One good bit of good Brexit  news – the 1st of November is a public holiday in France (all saints day).  On such public holidays large lorries are not allowed to travel on the autoroutes so perhaps we might all be spared what Brexit has to offer the good people of Kent until Monday the 4th November.

We should be so lucky, lucky lucky lucky….

Now back to those sunny uplands.

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72 Days

Posted on August 20, 2019 by Guthlac

 

When lost in a never ending storm it is always worth stating known facts rather than speculation based on speculation when trying to navigate your way out of the maelstrom .   So before I start to speculate these are the known facts as they stand:

  • In 2016 the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU) in a referendum;
  • A General Election was held in 2017 when both Labour and Conservatives promised to honour the result of the 2016 referendum;
  • The parliament of the the UK legislated to leave the EU on a specific date (European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.)  The original date was amended by the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2019 to the current one of 31st October 2019;
  • A withdrawal agreement has been reached between the then government of the UK which, when presented to the House of Commons was defeated three times by a significant margin.

Now, much as I might not want the UK to leave the EU, I can’t argue with any of those facts.  The upshot of  which means that the UK will leave the EU at 23:00 hours on the 31st October 2019.  We might be able to agree some form of agreement with the EU between now and that date but unless the Act of Parliament is amended (by a similar act as the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2019) then we will leave on the 31st of October 2019.   I do not believe there is anything in the 2018 nor 2019 Act of Parliament to say that we can only leave with some form of withdrawal agreement but rather we are going to leave…(you get the idea.)

I know the above does sound all very Brexiterish but it is not meant to be. These are the facts and I know I want to stay in the EU but I cannot ignore them, as many of the remain politicians seem to want to (if I hear one more time Parliament didn’t vote to leave without a deal then I will scream!   Parliament has refused to approve a deal and nothing was included in the substantive Act nor its amending act to say a withdrawal agreement must be agreed before leaving.  The House of Commons has had plenty of opportunity to do so and it has not.)

This brings us to what will happen in the first week of Parliament’s return – will there be a vote of no confidence?   If we disregard all the nonsense talk of a government of National Unity lead by Jeremy Corbyn  (I can think of no better definition of an oxymoron.) Then should the Johnson government fall in such a vote we will be having a General Election just at the time when we will need our political classes to be concentrating on amiliating any of the outcomes outlined in the Operation Yellowhammer document and also passing all the legislation needed to make sure the statute book is in order by the 31st October 2019.  Should the Johnson government fall the argument that the outgoing shouldn’t do anything controversial during the run up to the election doesn’t apply to leaving the EU as this is a substantive Act of Parliament.  It would be like saying that an outgoing government shouldn’t ensure that the Theft Act was enforced.  So forcing the Johnson government to fall will mean we have no government just at the time we need a government more than ever.  I cannot see how that is in the National Interest no matter what I might think about Boris Johnson et al.

I don’t want the UK to leave the EU  but I am afraid the time for such a debate has passed.   We all now have to prepare as best we can for life outside the EU.   We remainers will just have to accept we lost and make the best of what will always be a suboptimal world post 31st October.

One final thought.  Should the UK leave the EU without a deal it will be a huge diplomatic failure on both sides.   Britain will have increased trade barriers with its largest trading partner and may have soured relations with them for sometime to come.  The European Union will have ensured that the one thing they were trying to prevent, a hard border on the island of Ireland, will be a reality by the 1st November 2019 whilst at the same time will have to deal with the huge destabilizing economy at the geographical heart of the EU – if Kent is going to become a lorry park then so is northern France.   They will both try and dress it all up as the other’s fault but it is fault on both sides.  Nobody will win from this mess and don’t believe a word from anyone who claims otherwise.

Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of...

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77 Days

Posted on August 15, 2019 by Guthlac

A new day and a new bit of nonsense – Jeremy Corbyn has decided he is the leader of the Remain side in the House of Commons – he wants to be their Prime Minister and is willing to lead a government of National Unity.   Now if you think that Boris Johnson is being disingenuous about Brexit then this is right up their with £350m a week for the NHS.  Corbyn has always been hostile to the European Union which is a legitimate position to take – just ask the Brexiteers so for him to suddenly offer to lead this new potential government is just nonsense and of course Corbyn knows this.  He also knows that he is also one of the divisive people in British politics at the moment and so the chances of anyone beyond his supporters believing anything he says are very small indeed.

Still it got him some nice column inches and people like me, not that I count, writing about him.

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