49 Days

Posted on September 12, 2019 by Guthlac

There is one problem that all the remain politicians and those of us who want to remain within the European Union (EU) cannot overcome: Legitimacy.   Much as I hate to agree with Boris Johnson on this point I think he is right – we have to honour the result of the referendum and we have to leave the European Union.  I don’t want to but unless there is a second referendum I don’t see that there is any other legitimate course of action.

What I don’t agree is that we have to leave without a deal because I just don’t believe in any real sense that exist.  Yes we could leave on the 31st October without some form of a deal but on the 1st of November we will be entering in to talks to try and ameliorate the problems associated with that course of action.   This is what will fill our political lives for years to come and so getting a deal now is the best way to ensure that the start of that process is as smooth as possible.

I believe that Britain is far too big a country for the EU to just try and pretend doesn’t exist.  On the flip side of that of course is that the EU is a huge beast for Britain to try and ignore and we will both have to find some form of an accommodation whether Nigel Farage or the front page of the Daily Express likes it or not.

What I also believe is that the Republic of Ireland is going to get screwed which ever way this goes.   If we leave without a deal there will be warm words and possibly some cash from the EU but I don’t believe this will last for long.   The Irish will become very isolated and possibly blamed by some countries for the fact that their economy has been adversely affected  because of Irish intransigence over the back stop.   This doesn’t mean that the Irish are wrong but when Germany is in recession and without a government whilst the Italian debt crises is starting to hit the Euro hard I really don’t think the EU will give too much consideration to the needs of the Republic of Ireland GDP $333 billion when compared to Germany GDP $3.67 trillion or Italy $1.9 trillion.   Suddenly the problems on the road between Blacklion to Belcoo isn’t going to count for much at all with the EU.   If this is the case then perhaps being so snotty to the British might not have been the wisest course of action either.

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53 Days

Posted on September 8, 2019 by Guthlac

 

So the latest news in the happy horror show of British politics is that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is going to break the law and not ask for an extension to article 50 should one be required in October.   Now whether this is true or not (I have to say this has the fingerprints of spin operations all over it but nowadays who knows?) it shows the depths we are descending into.   How did we get here?  Who is to blame?

I think the best answer to both of those questions can be answered by looking into the mirror.  We all are.  We all were too complacent with too many things in the past.  Politics had become some rich kids toy thing rather than having any real consequences (this was never the case in reality but to the rich kids running the country they never saw that.) . We never engaged and we laughed and went back to our apps and listicles.  I don’t think anyone is laughing now.

How will all this end?  I have no idea but the next few weeks are going to test the British state to its core in a way it hasn’t been tested in centuries.   I’m not looking forward to the whole experience.

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Goodbye to the Memphis Bell

Posted on September 7, 2019 by Guthlac

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55 Days

Posted on September 6, 2019 by Guthlac

Yesterday I visited the Imperial War Museum at Duxford for two reasons:  Firstly it is a very very long time since I visited the place – well over 20 years and secondly it is situated in a very interesting parliamentary constituency of South Cambridgeshire – more on that later.

Walking around the museum it was reliving the stories of my youth, much like my recent visit to the Ladybird book exhibition.  Here in front of me was the world I could feel comfortable in, a world of British aircraft greatness and standing steadfast with our American cousins.  This is the special relationship become real.   This is fantasy and there are two aircraft that puncher this fantasy more than any others:  The General Dynamics F111 and the BAC TSR2.   Without going into all the ins and outs of this sorry story the TSR2 was a groundbreaking aircraft that britain couldn’t afford to make and the Americans helped kill off.   After the TSR2 the British no longer made aircraft on their own and lead directly to cooperation with other European countries.  Who said history doesn’t repeat itself?

So why is the south Cambridgeshire seat an interesting one to follow in the some to be called General Election?  Afterall 51% of the went to the Conservative party in 2017.   A lot has happened since that time, a real understatement I know,   Heidi Allan, the sitting MP has left the Conservative party to become an Independent; the local council went quite significantly Liberal Democrats and of course Boris Johnson.   In the EU referendum the local council voted by 60% to stay in the EU.  In short if there is one seat that the Conservatives could lose as a result of them  following their current scorched earth policy then this is one of them.  Will they?  Who knows but given the upside down world political world we are now living in you just cannot say.

Duxford is a strange place.  An island of nostalgia in a sea of technological change  washing around the south Cambridgeshire countryside.   On that thought here are some doorstops.

It makes as much sense as anything that is happening at the moment.

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57 Days

Posted on September 4, 2019 by Guthlac

 

You know you are really through the looking glass when Ken Clarke is no longer a Conservative & Unionist party MP but here we are in the crazy House of Commons of 2019.  A House of Commons where a serial rebel against his own Conservative Party government, the Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons, can lounge on the front bench like some latter day tribune of the people, goes unpunished whereas the holder of all the great offices of state bar one in numerous Conservative governments is no a Conservative party MP.

What more needs to be said?

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58 Days

Posted on September 3, 2019 by Guthlac

We were told that should we vote to leave the EU it would be the easiest trade deal in the world to negotiate between Britain and the European Union;

We were then told that the only version of leaving the European Union was the Theresa May version of Brexit means Brexit;

We were then told that if only Theresa May had a large enough majority then things would be plain sailing;

We were then told that the £1 billion bribe to the DUP was normal regional support spending;

We were then told that it isn’t the Brexiteers fault that things are going wrong but rather the remainders who won’t support the Brexit process;

We were then told No deal is better than a bad deal;

We were then told it wasn’t;

We were then told that we have many wonderful plans which when pressed couldn’t be published because they didn’t exist;

We were then told it was the fault of the Irish because they insisted on having a legal guarantee that the British wouldn’t be able to break their promises;

We were then told that it was the fault of the European Union for not agreeing to remove the Irish backstop that we had insisted would cover the whole of the United Kingdom not just the island of Ireland;

We were then told it was the fault of Labour MPs who didn’t vote for the withdrawal agreement even though people like Boris Johnson hadn’t voted for it;

We were then told that the reason why Parliament was to be prorogued is because Boris Johnson has all these great ideas that he wants to introduce and it has nothing to do with Brexit;

And finally we are now told that should a Conservative MP not vote for the government today they will no longer be Conservative Party MPs – even though if this was the case just a few months ago then neither would Boris Johnson nor a number other members of his cabinet.

I could go on.  No doubt I could put together a similar list for remain.  The only difference is it wasn’t those of us who wanted to remain in the EU who came up with the idea of leaving.   As things start to unravel there is only group of people who are responsible for this mess.

But we will be told it wasn’t their fault it was….

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59 Days

Posted on September 2, 2019 by Guthlac

 

It has been nearly 4 hours since I saw the best impersonation of a rabbit caught in the headlights in a long time – Boris Johnson’s speech to the nation.  I say speech it was more like someone who is suddenly realising that the shit is getting real and he is about to be found out.   He had the demeanor of a very frightened school boy having to give a speech to the headmaster…oh I give up but I’m sure you’ll have got the idea by now that I wasn’t impressed.

So the latest Brexiteer wheeze is to take the country to the brink with an election that they think they can win.   Of course that is not what Johnson said but it is being leaked that that is what will happen if he loses a vote tomorrow .   Now assuming he gets his wish and 66% of all the MPs vote for a general election then we will be facing the biggest peacetime crises  in living memory without a functioning government.  The prospects aren’t great for Johnson either because you can guarantee the Brexit Party will be making a real big effort to get 1 MP.  What that will mean is that the Tory vote will be split.   His efforts won’t be helped by the way he has all but destroyed the electoral chances of his Scottish Tory MPs and finally he can expect to lose votes in the South East to the Liberal Democrats where there are an awful lot of remain voters.  In short it is going to be very very hard to increase the number of Tory MPs let alone get a majority.

So it is full steam ahead for a Labour victory and Jeremy Corbyn will be in No 10.   The only problem with that rosie view is there is no evidence that he an election winner – just the opposite.   The Labour party will no doubt point to what happened in 2017 and they might have apoint.  However, 2017 still left them nowhere near getting a majority and it is really hard to see where the votes will come from – even with the Tories split.

So there we have it.  Come the probable election day of 14th October and we will be right back in the mess we are in now.   Only difference is that we won’t have any government at all and that Brexit clock will continue to count down but with no one to give the orders to put into place all the plans that have supposedly been drawn up for a no deal Brexit.

I might have missed the memo but how is that in the national interest?   Bollocks to Brexit indeed or should that be…

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60 Days

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Guthlac

I have written over the past few days that all the sound and fury being expelled towards the Boris Johnson government is fighting the wrong battle.  No doubt the protesters in Whitehall would see things differently – suggesting the size of the crowd shows the depth of feeling against Johnson’s political tricks (sorry coup).   Whilst there was a large crowd I’m more than sure it wasn’t the largest crowd the Metropolitan Police had to deal with yesterday – that was either at the London Stadium or Stamford Bridge.  I guess the crowd at Selhurst Park was much much larger.

I am not trying to downplay what is happening now but I just don’t see what the protestors want to achieve and I think in truth neither do they.   All the time the clock is ticking and like it or not the United Kingdom of Great britain and Northern Ireland needs a functioning government at this time of crises as well as a parliament that is willing to do everything to ameliorate  the problems crises throws up.   Instead what probably will happen is that political games will overtake political reality let alone national interest.   The times for the games are over – we are in this mess because of the same parliamentarians that now are so outraged were unable to agree anything and certainly wouldn’t agree to the withdrawal agreement.   How will they now make anything better?

So what is the real battle?  To put it simply the battle to shape the Europe of the 21st century.   Now it is very easy to assume that Britain will be some supplicant nation having to kowtow to the European Union once we have left but that just won’t be the case.  Here are 4 numbers to illustrate the point: 4.0, 2.8, 2.7.   These are the total value of the German, British and French GDP in trillion of dollars.  In 2018 Britain was the second largest economy in the EU.  Now of course it can be argued that Britain’s economy was only this size because of its membership of the EU and that would be correct.  However, this argument cuts both ways and so the French and German economies have been boasted by Britain’s membership as well.   Nobody wins if there isn’t some form of accommodation between Britain and the EU.

The recent G7 meeting of world leaders illustrated this more than any figures could.   Britain was an important player on the world stage and both the French and the Germans knew this and so went out of their way to be friendly towards Boris Johnson.  This is especially true given the current incumbent in the White House who doesn’t see the EU as a legitimate organisation.   Now Trump won’t be there forever but I suspect his views  might have stained the American approach to the outside world much more than many people hope.  So even if a Democrat wins the election in 2020 Trump will still be a huge political force inside America that the new incumbent will not be able to ignore.   France and Germany need Britain in their sphere and Britain will be best served to go along with that. You will notice I haven’t mentioned the EU when talking about the G7 and that is because it has no clout at all in these meetings.   It is there but it is France and Germany who are the real powers.

What type of country do we all want Britain to be going forward in a post EU world?  This is the real battle to be won not some artificial construct that will be irrelevant come the 1st of November.  I am sick and tired of hearing the nonsense being spouted out by the hard Brexiteers about their world view after we have left the EU what about everyone else?  I think that is were the future of politics lies not the application of 19th and 20th century policies to the 21st century problems.   It will be our opportunity to forge a new Britain to meet the 21st century.  I suspect the era of crazy capitalism is over but I don’t believe that means a move towards crazy socialism either.  I believe in the end we will form a country that is hugely decentralised; A country where a federal structure will replace the  mess that Britain currently is (For this I think we can thank Brexit – without this would we really have started to understand the true impacts of devolved governments and the total lack of clarity at the heart of how this country is run let alone start to address how the people of the British Isles interact?) I suspect the country will continue to be swallowed up by the monster that is London which in turn will place huge pressures on the large cities of western Europe.   All the time we’ll have to find ways to cope with the effects of a changing climate which of course could put London under metres of water!

So this is what I mean about fighting the wrong fights.  Whether I am right or wrong only time will tell but I don’t think protesting about prorogation helps anyone but it might make a few people feel better.  Meanwhile Crystal Palace won and are now  4th in the Premier League.  You can decide which is the biggest silly season story.

 

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Must it contain people?…

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Guthlac

It would be exciting to say that huge momentous things happened to me this summer.  It would be but they didn’t.  Instead life just moved on with me along for the ride.   Perhaps this is reflected in my photographs of the summer 2019.

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Saying goodbye to Summer with a Flatulent Horse

Posted on August 31, 2019 by Guthlac

We humans do like to classify things, put things in their proper place – or is that just me?  I don’t think so.   This morning was the last day of summer up here in the frozen north and so it was nice to get out and take in the last of those summer rays.  However, as I stood there in east Leicestershire it certainly felt much more autumnal than anything else as the sun peaked about the horizon.   Somehow I don’t think the seasons and mother nature care two hoots about whether this day is August or September.

A friend of mine claims that I am a horse whisperer as I will always talk to any horse I come across.   Whether that makes me a horse whisperer or just someone who will talk to anyone or anything I’ll let you be the judge of that.   So as I was standing taking in the splendor of Gaulby Church I also became acquainted with this rather nice horse who was very friendly and I suspect thought there might be bit of apple in it for her.  Unfortunately I had to disappoint her on the apple front so whether she was feeling disgruntled by the whole situation she let out a large and echoing fart.

I cannot think of any better way to sum up the nonsense we find ourselves in at the moment.

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