There is one problem that all the remain politicians and those of us who want to remain within the European Union (EU) cannot overcome: Legitimacy. Much as I hate to agree with Boris Johnson on this point I think he is right – we have to honour the result of the referendum and we have to leave the European Union. I don’t want to but unless there is a second referendum I don’t see that there is any other legitimate course of action.
What I don’t agree is that we have to leave without a deal because I just don’t believe in any real sense that exist. Yes we could leave on the 31st October without some form of a deal but on the 1st of November we will be entering in to talks to try and ameliorate the problems associated with that course of action. This is what will fill our political lives for years to come and so getting a deal now is the best way to ensure that the start of that process is as smooth as possible.
I believe that Britain is far too big a country for the EU to just try and pretend doesn’t exist. On the flip side of that of course is that the EU is a huge beast for Britain to try and ignore and we will both have to find some form of an accommodation whether Nigel Farage or the front page of the Daily Express likes it or not.
What I also believe is that the Republic of Ireland is going to get screwed which ever way this goes. If we leave without a deal there will be warm words and possibly some cash from the EU but I don’t believe this will last for long. The Irish will become very isolated and possibly blamed by some countries for the fact that their economy has been adversely affected because of Irish intransigence over the back stop. This doesn’t mean that the Irish are wrong but when Germany is in recession and without a government whilst the Italian debt crises is starting to hit the Euro hard I really don’t think the EU will give too much consideration to the needs of the Republic of Ireland GDP $333 billion when compared to Germany GDP $3.67 trillion or Italy $1.9 trillion. Suddenly the problems on the road between Blacklion to Belcoo isn’t going to count for much at all with the EU. If this is the case then perhaps being so snotty to the British might not have been the wisest course of action either.