One of the joys of being laid up for a few days with a bad cold (no it isn’t covid as I have. none of the symptoms – I just like I had a cold – there is a difference) is that I have had some time to take stock as to where I am in the world. It seems that those ever borrowing elves in market research have been doing the same and they have come up with a name for my tribe – the Pragmatic Remainer. I think that Brexit is nonsense but that ship has sailed and so we now have to make the best of the world we find ourselves in. I don’t want Britain nor the European Union (EU) to suffer but of course if we do leave with no deal then both sides will.
From this side of the Channel/North Sea/Irish Sea/Rellan Road it would seem that the EU is suffering from a huge amount of hubris in that there appears to be a view that Brexit will be more damaging to Britain than to the EU. On the one level this may prove to be the case but I suspect that Brexit has unleashed forces deep within the body politic of the EU that may well present themselves over the next 10 years or so in such a way that the EU of 2030 will be significantly different than the one envisaged today. The Poland/Hungary fault line is just the start.
None of us know what effect having an economically powerful country just off the shore of the EU will have but my feeling is that it isn’t going to go the way that many within the current EU political class think it will. This isn’t the EU’s fault nor, for that matter, is it Britain’s. It is probably part of a much larger change in the post second world war world. The more frightening thought is that it is not impossible to think that maybe the United States of America, the architect and main beneficiary of this world order, might not even exist in its current form by 2030. Now if that were to happen then it would make Brexit appear even more foolhardy than it did in 2016 – well at least to me – your mileage may vary.
Now there is a happy thought to end on.