I really don’t know why I watch any news programme at the moment. Last night having sat through Newsnight on the BBC I ended up being utterly dispirited – not by what was said, more of that in a moment, but by the almost cult like approach of the spokes people for the Yes side. Is it me, I guess it probably is, but they all seem to have assumed a strange smile, a smile that says I am right and there is nothing you can say to dissuade me. I found that very worrying.
So what was said last night to make me feel so dispirted? Well it seems that the world is wrong. Time after time points were put to this Yes spokesperson or that spokesperson and they happily said that the opposing view was just wrong. Spanish minister who outlined Spain’s view on the process that Scotland would have to follow – wrong. The chancellor of the exchequer’s view on the use of the pound sterling in Scotland – wrong. The uncertainty of the continuing funding of research at Scottish universities after independence – wrong. The outrageous behaviour of some of the Yes campaigners – doesn’t exist. This last one I found really strange as the programme had a live audience which seemed to me full of Yes campaigners who were only too willing to shout down any No campaigners. According to the Alex Salmond, if he wins on Friday, all of this bad blood will disappear and everyone one will join hands in the great love in that will be Team Scotland.
Despite what I have written over the past few months and years I really don’t know what will happen whatever the result of the vote other than this – Scotland won’t get want it wants. It will get somethings but it will have to put up with others in order to get them. This doesn’t matter whether it is a Yes or No vote. The Yes side haven’t got a monopoly on wisdom anymore than the No side. Equally, Scotland is no wiser than England, contrary to what you might have heard and if I hear one more time that Scotland is leading the world into a new social democracy I think I will scream. In truth I doubt most of the world care about Scotland, many might have difficult identifying where it is on the map so the thought of this great movement coming from Scotland is not believable. Scotland is a wonderful place but it is as smelly in parts as any other part of the United Kingdom. What it is not is some shinny beacon up on a hill.
So just incase any Yes campaigner might ever read this here are some of the things that are far from clear come Friday morning and they have won: (the list is in no particular order)
Europe: Is Scotland already part of the European Union (EU) or not? If not how will they continue to trade with other EU members whilst applying for membership? If they are do the UK opt outs apply? What do the other members of the EU think?
Pensions: Just who will pay what for the Scottish state pensions? How will this be calculated? How will it be administered? Will private pensions have to be structured separately to comply with EU regulations if so who has to pay for this?
World: Who will negotiate with world for Scotland? If it is part of the current UK Foreign and Commonwealth office then which part? Who will be the Scottish ambassadors to all the other countries in the world? Where will the embassies be situated? Where will the Scottish foreign ministry be based in Edinburgh? Will Scottish citizens still have access to UK consular support in an emergency? How will UK law that governs the UK’s relationship with the outside world apply to Scotland?
Money: Just what currency will Scotland use? If it is the pound sterling then what mechanisms will be adopted to allow the currency union between two separate nations continue? How will this effect the negotiations between the EU and Scotland? Will Scotland have to take the Euro as part of the quid pro quo for EU membership? If it is not the pound then what?
Immigration: Just what will the effect of having a Scottish immigration policy and a UK immigration policy have? Will there be some form of mechanism to harmonise this if so what? If not will there be border patrols, a fence, deportations?
Defence: How do you separate an integrated armed services beyond allocation of hardware? Who sails the ships? Who flys the planes? Who trains the new pilots? Who owns the Ministry of Defence land in Scotland? Will the UK still build warships in Scotland? What will Scotland pay for the land that currently is the nuclear facilities at Faslane? How will the integrated UK armed forces command and control system be seperated? Will Scotland be part of NATO? What will happen to the aircraft carriers currently being built in Scotland for the UK?
Trade: How will trade work between Scotland and the UK? What distribution networks will have to be reorganised in light of any currency problems or new international borders? How will the electricity from Scotland/UK flows be paid for? Who will pay for the maintenance of the UK national grid? How will Scotland trade with the EU whilst it’s status is being decided? Will import duties be imposed on Scottish goods exported to the EU during this period? How will the rail service work once it is an international service? How will standards be agreed on between the two countries? How will postal service work once it is an international service?
UK Government Functions in Scotland: How many jobs are likely to be affected when Scotland leaves the UK? Will these jobs become part of the Scottish state or will they be repatriated to the UK? How much of the UK research funding will continue when Scotland is no longer part of the UK? Will any new UK funding be allowed for Scottish universities after independence? If so what will the mechanisms by which this will be allocated? How will the Scottish state ensure that research funding is maintained?
Health: How will Scotland pay for an ageing population’s health needs? How will UK wide services, such as organ transplant, be maintained when Scotland is no longer part of the UK?
Oil: Just how do you divide the oil revenues between Scotland and the UK? How do you pay for the Norwegian Gas and Oil imports via pipeline connections with Scotland that are for the UK rather than Scotland? Who will pay for the UK government’s commitment to decommissioning of old oil and gas facilities? Just how do you set up a sovereign oil fund? What will the sovereign oil fund be used for? How will it be managed? What will happen to the current Shetland oil fund? Will it become part of the new Scottish fund?
Nuclear: Who will pay for the decommissioning of Nuclear facilities in Scotland?
National Debt: Just how much of the UK national dept will Scotland inherit? How will this be divided? What would happen should Scotland refuse to accept the allocation of its portion of debt? How will Scotland manage it’s own debt?
Banks: Who will own the ‘Scottish Banks’ that are currently mostly owned by the UK Government? What happens to the banks bad debts should they remain Scottish? Will they still be allowed to print ‘Scottish’ pounds if they are a foreign i.e. UK bank? If the Scottish banks do move south then how much of the current functions undertaken in Scotland will they take with them?
Culture: Just how do you divide a national art collection? How do you divide the art collection owned by the UK government? Are all the art works currently situated in Scotland Scotland’s? How do you divide up the British library collection? If you don’t then what compensation does the UK pay to Scotland?
This really isn’t an exhaustive list and whilst some of these things probably won’t be an issue some will be big issues and it doesn’t matter that the Yes side may say. It can be argued by the Yes side that much of this has been addressed in the Scottish white paper on independence but that argument won’t work for two reasons: Firstly, a white paper is just a list of proposals and not even law; Secondly, and I suspect this is the real point, why would any country outside of Scotland actually give Scotland anything they want? Even the UK, which is the most exposed to Scotland, doesn’t have to play ball at all with Scotland – it is after all 9 times the size of the Scottish economy and that is before the UK government functions undertaken in Scotland are relocated to the UK such as HM Revenue and Customs at Cumbernauld, the Student’s loan company at Glasgow, building warships, storing and maintaining the Nuclear deterrent. In short Scotland needs good will on many sides for the country to start off on a good footing. Portraying anyone who might suggest such problems as scaremongering or anti Scottish doesn’t help.
Whilst the list I have produced seems to be a compelling argument for the Better Together side I really don’t think it is. I believe that the union has been ruptured and we had all better start again and try and make peace with each other as separate nations. I just don’t feel that the bitter feelings that have been exposed, sorry that is just a figment of my English imagination how silly of me, won’t be calmed by any amount of devolving of more powers to Scotland. The current proposals are unclear and seem to be unravelling daily – the latest appears to be that Gordon Brown is saying that Scottish MP’s at Westminster can still vote on English matters after the new devolved powers are given to Scotland. I’m sure he will try and pretend this is because of the disparity of the size of the two countries and what happens in England really does effect Scotland far more than the other way round. All of this is true but I suspect the real reason is that if this is accepted then the next Labour Government would not be able to use it’s many Scottish MP’s as Government minsters nor get much of its business through without the Scottish MP’s votes because much of it will only apply to England. Nice one Gordon another well thought through policy announcement – how we have missed you. If this was accepted, which I doubt it will be because it will bring about the collapse of the Conservative lead Government, then it will really open up a hornets nest and feed into resentment and bitterness on both sides.
So for the sake of both countries I hope that Scotland votes Yes on Thursday. However, I suspect they won’t and then we will be in for some very interesting times indeed.
Simon Marchini
www.simonmarchini.co.uk
Simon's Blog 