Simon's Blog

So St Gordon is to come to the rescue on his greying charger. “…Once more unto the breach…” he seems to be saying and he alone is going to save the Union of Scotland and the UK. I’m really not sure who is more patronised by all this more? The Scots or the rest of us. Here we have the least successful PM in living memory standing up, as bold as brass, wrapping himself in the Union flag, and saying trust me I’m Gordo. As with all of Gordon Brown’s great plans in the past his timescale to Home Rule for the Scots is falling apart before he has bothered to sit down. Today we hear rumbling’s from English MP’s about no one has spoken to them about all this and how is all this going to effect their constituents? After all many of these MP’s may be fight the forth coming election, whenever it might be, against a UKIP insurgency who will love to exploit any deal done with Scotland as a bad deal for England. Nice one Gordon.

So, if this whole thing back fires or that Miliband or Cameron make some almighty mess of things today as they tour Scotland like some papal missionary trying to convert the heathens to the joys of unionism and the Scots vote Yes – then what? What is the timetable after that? I have blogged about the impossibility of the supposed 18 months to independence and I still believe that. However, no matter what is the likely date there are certain things that are likely to happen over the next 6 to 9 months. This is my first stab at trying to imagine what the first 3 months might be.

Within a week of the vote there will be a purge of the Government of all Scottish ministers. This won’t be too problematic for the Conservatives but it will hit the Lib Dems much harder. No matter all the Scottish ministers will be gone. The same things will happen on the Labour side which will cause greater problems but problems that they can get around.

It is also likely that in that week there may well be a run on the pound as speculators test the boundaries of how much the currency will fall. However, this probably will be a short term thing and the currency markets will settle down after the first flush of activity. However, we might see that interest rates will have to be raised to defend the pound which should see how strong the recovery really is. Shortly after this the great Scottish banks will admit the invertible and move their HQ’s to London. This will mean that much of their debt will also move from Scotland which probably wouldn’t harm things either – although expect some stamping of feet north of the border. There is also the first real test of the real temperature when the Ryder Cup is played at Gleneagles between the USA and EU golf players. If this turns into a Scotland the brave show then this might have much broader implications than just the golf. I hope it doesn’t but in the heightened atmosphere of the post referendum vote who knows. A lot depends on the statesmanship of Alex Salmond.

By the end of September all of the contingency plans that currently do not exist in Whitehall will start to appear. They may well be thread bare but will be the starting point for the negotiations to come. They will also be the starting point to measure of the feeling of the people who live in UK – just how hurt do they feel about the whole thing and who do they blame. This is when David Cameron will start to get into all sorts of trouble – especially from his right wing. If he falls then there is a good chance that his Government will fall then this will lead to early elections – which possibly won’t be such a bad thing given the whole mess he has lead the country to. The election will have one theme – just how much do you give the Scots and could become very ugly indeed.

By October senior civil servants from the UK and Scotland will have held meetings to start to flesh out the agenda for the negotiations. I guess the first things to sort out is just what points there are not contentious. This may well be a very small list but it is a start. For me I guess the one thing that they all can agree on is that Scotland will be part of NATO. They might also agree that the Royal Regiment of Scotland should form the core of the new land forces for Scotland. Whatever the result of the these contacts are (this may already have taken place and agreed in principle) they will have to report back to the political master who have to make the final decision – which of course might be a problem if Cameron has fallen and an early election is called. One of the more thorny problems to be identify in this period would be who actually negotiates for Scotland on the International stage? Would the Scots accept the good offices of the Foreign Office who, after all, have all the contacts with the EU, UN, World Bank, NATO et al. It would seem sensible but don’t expect such things to be plain sailing.

By November then there is the little case of a Scotland v England football match taking place in Glasgow at Celtic Park. This is fraught at the best of times but if feelings are running high between the two countries then it might be worth while cancelling the match. It should also be remembered Celtic is identified as the Irish Nationalist team which might just cause extra tension. Also by this time the contradictions on the Scottish side will start appear. The SNP is a rainbow coalition of groups who are held together by the hope of independence and so these disparate voices will want to be heard in any negotiations. On top of this you have all these soon to be out of work Westminster based Scottish politicians who will want to try and make a new career north of the border who may well want have their say on the shape of a new Scotland – don’t discount St Gordon making a big play for the leadership of the Scottish labour party. Whatever happens the smug smile of Alex Salmond might not look so smug by the end of November as he faces his own political difficulties. British participation in any American lead attack on ISIS will cease as their is unlikely to be any support in Parliament for it. This is also the case for any negotiations with the EU over the role of Britain as their won’t be a Britain in the less than 18 months. In short, for the first time in an awful long time the British guns will be silent and we will have no voice in the world – silence is golden.

By December the negotiating lines will start to be established and hopefully by Christmas there will be peace on the northern front as sane council will have prevailed because the New Year is going to one hell of a ride. Of course none of this takes into account “..events dear boy events..” or perhaps a much better quote would be the “…unknowable unknowables…” Here are just a taste, a nuclear accident in the Scottish nuclear power station, a major fire at Grangemouth refinery, some form of major sectarian problems in Northern Ireland as a result of the Scottish vote. None of these are likely but should they happen – then who knows how it will effect things.

I really do hope the Scots know what they are really voting for – not the brigadoon of Alex Salmond’s imagination but a hard, chilling slog to a new, perhaps not better, country who will always be influenced by the comparatively huge country to the south. It ain’t going to be easy to forge this new Scotland but should they vote Yes then this is the road they are setting out on. I hope and prey that sane voices on both sides prevail – I’m not sure they will.

Simon Marchini
www.simonmarchini.co.uk