After weeks of speculation it is here. The by election at Makerfield is upon us. This being Britain there is an almost universal news black out by all the main media outlets. This is so the voters can go about their business without TV cameras and endless speculation affecting how they vote. That stopped at 00:00 hrs this morning. We just have to wait until the early hours of the morning to see what happens next.

As to the ‘what happens next’ part. I don’t think anyone has a clue. Of course everyone wants to know about Andy Burnham’s plans. But that all depends on him winning. If he does then the Starmer government will be unable to do anything save deal with an emergency. This will annoy Starmer and his supporters but this is politics at the highest level. No one will want to do anything to put there ministerial careers at risk.

If Burnham doesn’t win I’m not really sure whether this will make any difference. Starmer appears to have lost the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) and all his protestations of carrying on seem very hollow. Of course they may well be aimed at Labour Party members who will have to vote in any leadership contest were one to be called.

Of course the biggest winner, if Burnham doesn’t succeed, will be Reform, assuming their candidate won. They will have seen of the Rupert Lowe’s merry band of follows as well as beheading the ‘King of the North’. Goodness only knows what will happen then amongst the PLP.

So yes an important by election me thinks.