The other day I wrote my first piece about the upcoming European Elections for the European Union (EU) parliament. The main conclusion I came to was that the Brexit Party would have the largest share of the vote and that the Liberal Democrats (Lib/Dems) would significantly increase their showing as well. I felt that the main political parties Labour and especially the Conservatives would lose votes because of their ambiguous Brexit position. I also thought that the turn out would be much larger than the previous election in 2014.
The one unknown I didn’t really address was the Green Party of England and Wales (there is a seperate party in Scotland. The England and Wales party is who I am talking about here.) In the 2014 election they got a larger share of the vote than the Lib/Dems. However, traditionally the Lib/Dems get a much larger share of the vote so this is one reasons why I didn’t consider the Green Party. The other reason is that as the the Lib/Dems had a great local election and have much wider spread and so I think that they will attract more votes than the Greens (In 2009 they came almost within 1% of the Labour vote – the Greens were half that.) The final thing is that the Lib/Dems are the best known unambiguous Remain party with a very simple message – Bollocks to Brexit.
Since then I have started to think a bit more about the Greens relationship with Labour and I suspect the Jeremy Corbyn is right to fear the Greens. In the Southeast and London regions there is a good chance that much of the disgruntled Labour vote, those feel rejected by the unclear push me pull you position on the question of Brexit, may well reject Labour for the Greens. These voters are most likely to be younger, better educated with no real sense of loyalty to Labour compared to their loathing of the Conservatives. They would also probably have a strong position on climate change as well holding a positive view of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and what she stands for. Because they are young it is very very unlikely they voted in the last Euro elections but I suspect they are going to vote in this. If all these things are correct then the Green Party may will be a better fit than the once steller Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn. Once they have voted Green then there is a good chance they will continue to do so. This is a really big problem for Labour.
The other factor in play here is that this election is about one thing and one thing only Brexit. Again this will not help Labour who have constituents who are very pro Brexit and members who are the reverse – hence the ambiguous policy they are pursuing. This doesn’t really have any place in a campaign dominated by Nigel Farage on the one hand and Bollocks to Brexit on the other. This conflict will be played out over the next week in the London region as well as the Southeast region and if Labour aren’t very careful they could be main losers here as voters move towards the pro and anti Brexit parties (both regions have the most Green voters.) I stand by my prediction of the Lib/dems coming second but maybe the Labour vote might collapse even more than I first thought.
All of this, of course, is pure speculation and there is still 7 days to the election so an awful lot can change. Nonetheless, there is just the outside chance that the forthcoming election may mark the end of the Jeremy Corbyn Labour revolution and ironically it may come at the hands of the Green Party. Perhaps.