So 2024 is going to be one of those crazy confluences where it will appear that much of the world is undergoing an election. Of course the one that I am most concerned with is the UK general election and yet another rerun of the Tory psycho drama that once more swirls around Nigel Farage is being played out. As the year grows more mature I will expect the column inches/social media nonsense (this blog included) will be concerned with what the Nigel Bot 3000 does next and what that means to the collapsing fortunes of the once great Conservative Party. Meanwhile in the real world most people will look on in bafflement.
This election is unfortunately likely to be really nasty. I hope and pray that it is nothing more than mean, misleading and mendacious words. However, since 2015 two MPs have been murdered so…
I do hope you had a good Christmas – I did. One of the ‘new‘ things we got this Christmas was a new Doctor Who. He was great. The episode was great and quite honestly that is all I care about. Of course other views are available and that is fine.
Apologies to anyone south of the equator who might come across this post but this is the shortest day here ‘up North’. I had planned to spend the day capturing image to make some form of photo essay but the weather forecast says it is going to rain most of the day and I am just getting too old to spend the day deliberately getting wet.
So instead I thought I would post some gloomy images captured in and around the shortest day.
At times its grime ‘up North’. But then the weather breaks and we get a wonderfully colourful dawn…over a flooded field!
I hope anyone who finds this post has a great Christmas.
So the parliamentary season is almost over and it is a reasonable time to take stock as to exactly where things stand. Well as I write this on 17th december 2023 it looks most likely that Labour will win next year’s election. (Yes I know it could be actually drag on until January 2025 but at this time this does seem highly unlikely if, for no other reason, the anger the Tories are likely to face could wipe them from Parliament). The question is ‘…what does a Labour win look like?…’ I suspect there are 3 possible scenarios:
Largest Party
Here they don’t win an overall majority but rather become the largest party in the House of Commons. This means that the Conservatives have lost their majority and are most likely the second largest but some distance behind Labour. This would also mean that the Liberal Democrats may well have done quite well and so whilst Labour doesn’t have a majority it is unlikely to be defeated in the House of Commons because I suspect that hell would have to freeze over before they vote with the Conservatives to defeat Labour. In short, whilst this is difficult it is reasonably manageable.
Small Majority
Here Labour have a small majority of perhaps 5 to 10. This would be an incredible result considering where Labour have come from and, as discussed above, is likely to be pretty secure.
Very Large Majority Indeed
This is existential threat territory for the Conservatives. Here the electorate take it into the hands and give the Conservatives a really good kicking. It is way way too early to predict this but I have feeling that this is the vibe at the moment in the country. Whether this vibe will carry on until the general election is uncertain. However, with every bit of bad news that keeps coming out this will move from a vibe to a real possibility. If this were to happen then the Conservatives could return with as few as 100 seats.
Many suggest, with good justification, that this is very unlikely and I can see their argument. However, it has happened before and not too long ago. In 2015 the Labour Party in Scotland went from dominance of 41 out of 59 seats to only having 1 seat. The SNP had a 30% swing to them. A similar result at the next election might see the Conservatives have perhaps 15 to 20 seats. This is unlikely unless Rishi Sunak decides to run the clock out and go for a January 2025 election.
Perhaps the only thing to say with any certainty is that the next 12 months are going make the Brexit debates look like child’s play as the Tory press throws everything they have got at Labour. It is not going to be edifying.
The problem they and all the bright tech bots that will be employed will face is simple. Will the people listen?
Strange old day patrolling the borders between Leicestershire and Derbyshire. After a brisk walk a cup of tea and bangers and mash in the Calke Abbey canteen. It’s a hard life but what can I say?
After lunch we visited Breedon – it’s still there.
It started so well. Just over 12 months ago the adults were back in charge. Rishi Sunak managed to recover from some of the economic damage that his predecessor had inflicted in her crazy crazy few short weeks. He was ably assisted by Jeremy Hunt, his Chancellor of the Exchequer. So the New year started with some hope that perhaps Rishi might pull off the recovery of the Conservative Party and Windsor Framework reinforced the notion of serious people doing serious work. Since then? Well politics is, as a famous political operator put it….
When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.
This week saw a bizarre press conference when the Prime Minister tried to look tough and ended up just looking like a truculent teenager. I think Ian Hislop summed it up the best. Our current Prime Minister doesn’t understand politics.
The much quoted “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” does seem more and more apt with every passing day.
I have no idea whether a new Labour government would be that much better than this lot of third rate (well I’m really not sure what the collective noun for our collapsing clown wagon of a leadership might be) government other than to say it cannot be any worse.
One final thought. Guess who is next at the COVID enquiry…
Footnote:
Just when I thought we had seen it all I have just read a theory, in a national newspaper not some crackpot blog (kettle calling the pot black?), that this is all part of a really cunning plan that if or when this all falls apart in Parliament then Rishi could call an early election with one issue “Get Rwanda Done”. Crazy I know but somehow I can see them think this might work. Baldrick would be proud.
The New Avengers? Bit early?…Maybe. What is clear is that with every passing day the political power is slipping away from Rishi Sunak. The smell of decay is really starting to become unbearable. Does this mean that the next Government of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be shaped by these powerful women? Not yet. Many things can happen between now and when the Sunak Government finally faces the electorate.
If Sunak decides to go long then I suspect he could be facing a wipeout similar to that Labour experienced in Scotland in 2015. If that happens then it doesn’t matter what this or that right wing noise maker says. They won’t be MPs and have no power. Who might want this?
In 1514 Francis Hastings was born. He went onto become the 2nd Earl of Huntingdon and had a very successful life marrying very well indeed. However, according to his Wiki entry, he possibly was the son of Henry the 8th. However, he probably wasn’t it is far from clear.
I visited St. Helen’s Church at Ashby de la Zouch again today to try and capture some better images of Francis tomb with a ‘proper‘ camera. It worked out quite well.
In England I think we’re just a little too accepting of all the history around us, take the memorial to Margary Wright as an example. She appears a good upstanding member of society who after her death a fine little memorial was placed on the wall of her local church. Nothing too unusual about that until you see the date when she died – 1623. Now if you are an a US citizen you would probably be aware that this was just 2 years after the Mayflower pilgrims landed at Plymouth rock. So if this were in the States a great deal would have been made of the monument, here it just gathers dust in the corner of provincial church.
One final lesson from the church involves this fine alabaster memorial to Robert Nundi and his wives. He died in 1525 or 1526. He was a well off local tailor and in his will he left sums of monies to local religious establishments as well as my old school. He no doubt expected the nuns at Langley and monks at Gresley to pray for his soul for a very long time. Unfortunately just a few years later the possible but probably not father of Francis Hastings had other ideas and caused all the religious establishments he had endowed to close, pocketing all the money from the proceeds. There’s a lesson there somewhere.
I have say, and this should come as a surprise to no one, but a ‘proper‘ camera with some excellent lenses puts an iPhone in its place, a very distant second. This is not to downplay just how good an iPhone is but rather to take a poke at some of the nonsense that Apple spurts each time they have a new iPhone to flog. Apple oversells goods hardly breaking news. I say this as someone who is totally enclosed in the Apple walled garden.
So winter is officially here. I woke up this morning and found we had had a light dusting of snow. Time I think to get some housekeeping done whilst sitting in my nice warm little study.
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