So the parliamentary season is almost over and it is a reasonable time to take stock as to exactly where things stand. Well as I write this on 17th december 2023 it looks most likely that Labour will win next year’s election. (Yes I know it could be actually drag on until January 2025 but at this time this does seem highly unlikely if, for no other reason, the anger the Tories are likely to face could wipe them from Parliament). The question is ‘…what does a Labour win look like?…’ I suspect there are 3 possible scenarios:
Largest Party
Here they don’t win an overall majority but rather become the largest party in the House of Commons. This means that the Conservatives have lost their majority and are most likely the second largest but some distance behind Labour. This would also mean that the Liberal Democrats may well have done quite well and so whilst Labour doesn’t have a majority it is unlikely to be defeated in the House of Commons because I suspect that hell would have to freeze over before they vote with the Conservatives to defeat Labour. In short, whilst this is difficult it is reasonably manageable.
Small Majority
Here Labour have a small majority of perhaps 5 to 10. This would be an incredible result considering where Labour have come from and, as discussed above, is likely to be pretty secure.
Very Large Majority Indeed
This is existential threat territory for the Conservatives. Here the electorate take it into the hands and give the Conservatives a really good kicking. It is way way too early to predict this but I have feeling that this is the vibe at the moment in the country. Whether this vibe will carry on until the general election is uncertain. However, with every bit of bad news that keeps coming out this will move from a vibe to a real possibility. If this were to happen then the Conservatives could return with as few as 100 seats.
Many suggest, with good justification, that this is very unlikely and I can see their argument. However, it has happened before and not too long ago. In 2015 the Labour Party in Scotland went from dominance of 41 out of 59 seats to only having 1 seat. The SNP had a 30% swing to them. A similar result at the next election might see the Conservatives have perhaps 15 to 20 seats. This is unlikely unless Rishi Sunak decides to run the clock out and go for a January 2025 election.
Perhaps the only thing to say with any certainty is that the next 12 months are going make the Brexit debates look like child’s play as the Tory press throws everything they have got at Labour. It is not going to be edifying.
The problem they and all the bright tech bots that will be employed will face is simple. Will the people listen?
Time will tell.
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