The time has come. With 6 days to go before the General Election, this will be for c 80% of the vote cast as c 20% has already been cast via postal voting, what do I think is going to happen? Before answering this I think the one overriding impression I have got is that voter apathy towards the political process will have a major impact on this election. Having said that I suspect that it will not reduce the turn out as a whole but rather constituencies that have a large Labour majority may well see the turn out reduced, it won’t affect the winner but they will win with a reduced majority whilst keeping their percentage lead. In contrast I suspect that constituencies where the sitting Tory candidate could lose will have an increased turn out as voters try to get rid of the Tory candidate. So I guess this is my first prediction:
1) The drive to give the Conservative Party a real good kicking will be a major driving force of the election.
Beyond this I think elections are unknown until all the votes are counted and so my following predictions are based around what my sense of the percentage chance they have of happening.
2) The chance that Labour has an overall majority of 1 – 99%
No great prediction here. The polls have been saying this for almost 2 years but it will still be one of the greatest electoral achievements by any incoming Labour government to get a majority of 1 given where they were in 2019.
3) The chance that the Labour government will have a majority over 100 – 80%
This is probably the craziest thing about the probable election result: if Labour gets a majority less than 100 it will be seen as a failure. I doubt it will happen but I give it a 20% chance.
4) The chance that Rishi Sunak loses his seat – 40%
There has never been a Labour MP in area that Sunak has his constituency yet there is a possibility he could lose. Even if Sunak wins I doubt he will stay around for much longer as he will be the hate figure for every defeated candidate, and there will be many big beasts of the former government who will want to blame him as well as the Tory backing press who now find that they have no access to the government of the day. Let’s face it he doesn’t need the hassle so why the hell would he put up with this when the sunny skies of California will seem so much more sunnier as the English summer heads towards the dark clouds of autumn.
5) The chance that the Conservatives is the third largest party in the next House of Commons – 10%
This, in many respects, is the real question to be answered – just how low can the Tories go? I don’t think they will finish third but they could finish so far behind the Labour party that they may as well be third. But, and I can’t underline this enough, for this even being considered is astonishing. Yet here I am agreeing with a number of opinion polls so we just don’t know.
6) The chance that the Liberal Democrats will form the official opposition – 10%
This is the yang to the ying of the previous point. The great advocates of proportional representation benefiting from the peculiarities of the first past the post system. They are likely to outperform all of the opinion poll predictions and maybe, just maybe have more MPs than the Conservative Party. Again, just suggesting this as a reasonable possibility is nuts. Welcome to the Nutty Election.
7) The chance Nigel Farage is elected an MP – 45%
Nigel Farage doesn’t really want to be an MP for Clacton but this time he may well succeed and he will hate every minute because, if Labour have a huge majority then no one will be listening to him. His power base has always been drawn from his ability to cause trouble for the Conservative government. No Conservative government, No power. So it may well be Nigel, be careful for what you wish. (Side note – it is far from clear at the time of writing what, if any, affect the racist et al comments of a Reform worker in Clacton might have – it’s probably not going to help.)
8) The chance that most of what I have predicted above is incorrect – 100%
The only prediction I am certain of is that Labour will form the next government. I suspect they will have a very large majority and this will allow Sir Keir Starmer the space to do things that will upset many people but it is what the Country needs to start the process of healing after 14 years of what we have just experienced. I have no idea what type of Prime Minister he will be nor how successful but if some of the wild predictions outlined above come true the implications will be seismic. I’ll give you one example:
For the last 14 years the leading right wing papers have dominated the political debate. Their editors have had a direct hotline to whomever was the Prime Minister. Come the 5th of July this will surely end and this could cause an explosion of hatred towards the Conservative Party – initially aimed at Rishi Sunak. In the more long term it may lead to the collapse such august media groups such as the Telegraph Group and upstarts such as GB News. What might replace them is unclear but it certainly will change the outlook.
So there we have it. I may review my predictions after the elections – especially if they are anything like correct. Only time will tell…which is the same for the results of the General Election
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