So will the Tories lose all three of the upcoming by elections? I don’t know but that is not going to stop me speculating!

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Chance of Conservatives losing: 90%

What more can be said about Alexander Johnson AKA Boris? I suspect the voters of the constituency want to give him a real kicking for many reasons. However, I suspect that the forthcoming ULEZ implementation might have a factor but I doubt it will have that much. Perhaps turn out will be low but it is the former seat of the artist known as Boris so perhaps not. Given all this I think were the Tories to hold this seat it will be a major upset – hence the 90% chance of them losing it.

Somerton and Frome

Chance of Conservatives losing: 70%

For almost 20 years this seat used to be return a Liberal Democrat MP. The current MP has resigned after being involved in after being involved in misconduct (I’ll let you find the full details for yourself…needless to say they are …well you can find out...). The Liberal Democrats had a very good local council elections in the area this year taking over the running of the council. Former Tory resign in shame, Liberal Democrat on the rise. This should be great opportunity for the Lib Dem gain. The only downsides are that the Conservatives have a nearly 20k majority and it is summer so many voters might be on holiday. Nonetheless I think there is a good chance of a Lib Dem gain.

Selby and Ainsty

Chance of Conservatives losing: 60%

I don’t really know anything about this seat other than its previous MP seems to have resigned in a fit of peek because he wasn’t allowed to go to the House of Lords in Boris’s resignation ‘Honours’ list. Again, this has a 20k plus majority so this might help save it but I suspect not. However, it is an unknown so I have given the Tories a fighting chance but given the national mood I still feel it is likely to fall to Labour

So taken as a whole this would give the Tories around a 60% of at least keeping hold of at least one of these seats, my guess would be Selby and Ainsty. However, I suspect the all the circumstances of these three by elections will mean that they will lose all three. Only the voters know.