Things are starting to get really rattled in the Tory supporting press this morning. They appear to be waking up to the fact that for the fifth general election in a row the Conservatives will not win an outright majority and so are now arguing that the Tory party should refuse to give up power even though they can’t get a majority in the House of Commons.
At this point it is worth pointing out that I am not a constitutional expert but having listened to what many have had to say over the past few weeks it is clear that an unwritten constitution is all things to all men and women so perhaps we are all experts. However, the latest argument that a majority in the House of Commons against the Conservatives is the wrong type of majority, because the Labour party may well have less Labour MP’s than Conservative or that there share of the vote was smaller, does seem very close to revolution and one that will only come back and destroy the Conservative brand once and for all. Yet today The Times has argued such a thing in its leader and claiming that a Conservative minority Government would be legitimate because of ‘…Size, incumbency and loyalty to Britain…’ and so continue to rule. It doesn’t matter that it would never get any legislation through the House of Commons and would ensure that Scotland would turn to the SNP in such a big way that trying to stop the break up of Britain would be almost impossible and create the biggest constitutional crises since the abdication of Edward 8th (Theresa May’s words). Perhaps the word ‘Unionist’ in the Conservative and Unionist party has a new definition as well. Given the scaremongering about the SNP over the past few weeks I guess it must.
So it seems as we come to the climax of one of the strangest campaigns in modern history some amongst us are willing to rewrite the constitution again just because they can’t stand loosing. It does remind me of the quote from some left of centre person recently who claimed that the Tony Blair majorities were somewhat illegitimate because they were gained by the wrong type of voters voting for Labour. I fully support the Conservative party’s attempt to form a Government, just as a I support the Labour party’s efforts but surely if any arrangement of loyalties cannot win a vote in the House of Commons they can’t carry on being the Government and it doesn’t really matter about spurious qualifications of the right type of majority…whoever has got the votes forms the Government of the day. The others have to suck it up and try and win an election next time around.
Simon Marchini
http://www.simonmarchini.co.uk
Simon's Blog 
Labour may well have the votes stacked up in its favour (SNP + Plaid) but that only gives Labour a fractious UK majority. It does not give it a majority in England. If the Tories are the largest party in England, would the English stand for a minority Labour Party using Scottish and Welsh nationalists to legislate on English health and education? I suspect not, and I suspect that Miliband wouldn’t particularly want to try. Having a Commons majority isn’t the only factor as far as legitimacy is concerned.
Of course, it should be said in the interest of balance, that the SNP would argue that a Tory-Liberal coalition might be legitimate in England but (with no Scottish MPs) it would be illegitimate in Scotland.
I think legitimacy in the House of Commons is such a strange creature to try and describe. An example would be every election since I think 1951 when more people didn’t vote for the party with a majority in the House of Commons than did – did this make the majority illegitimate? I don’t think so. As for the English question this too is a very slippery slope for any politician to try and descend because it starts to expose so many other things that are wrong with the way that the House of Commons works. In truth the only way forward is some form of Federal relationship between the four nations of the United Kingdom. However, how you make such a thing work when one of the nations is 80% of the population and economy is another matter entirely.
For what it is worth I think that a minority Labour Government is the most likely outcome after the next election. Whether this is stable or not is another matter but I would just like to point out that few political insiders gave the last coalition Government much chance of lasting more than a year yet it was one of the most stable Governments in recent years.